U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00408246 · Tennessee

Frost Dates near Shelbyville, TN

NOAA weather station Shelbyville Water Dept (USC00408246), Tennessee · elevation 760 ft (232 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Shelbyville is the nearest town to the station (1.1 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season204 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Shelbyville, TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 29Frost season near Shelbyville, TNSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 16
50% (typical)April 7October 29
90% (likely)March 19November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
204 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (3 days later). Frost-free season 209 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Shelbyville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 18, 30% April 13, 40% April 10, 50% April 7, 60% April 3, 70% March 31, 80% March 27, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 10, 2023 March 29, 2024 April 6, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 7Mar 192021: April 222022: April 102023: March 292024: April 62025: March 212026: March 18Fall near Shelbyville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 26, 50% October 29, 60% October 31, 70% November 3, 80% November 6, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 9, 2023 November 1, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 29Nov 112021: November 52022: October 92023: November 12024: October 172025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 10October 9
2023March 29November 1
2024April 6October 17
2025March 21November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 23 is the cautious spring date in the Shelbyville area, allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with only a 10% chance of a later light frost. Planting after this date reduces the risk of a frost damaging new growth, while the early spring date of March 19 carries a 90% chance and is a gamble.

The 50% dates are April 7 in spring and October 29 in fall; on each of these days a light frost is equally likely to have occurred already or to arrive later. In the fall the cautious date is October 16, which carries only a 10% chance of a frost arriving earlier, whereas the late-season date of November 11 involves a 90% chance and is risky.

Hard frost at 28 °F, with median dates of March 27 and November 6, can injure plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, making it a more critical threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Shelbyville, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Tullahoma, TN — 18 mi; 2 — Lewisburg, TN — 19 mi; 3 — Fayetteville, TN — 25 mi; 4 — Murfreesboro, TN — 30 mi; 5 — Woodbury, TN — 32 mi.TNGA25 mi · 40 km1. Tullahoma, TN — 18 mi12. Lewisburg, TN — 19 mi23. Fayetteville, TN — 25 mi34. Murfreesboro, TN — 30 mi45. Woodbury, TN — 32 mi5
  1. Tullahoma, TN 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Lewisburg, TN 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Fayetteville, TN 25 mi (40 km)
  4. Murfreesboro, TN 30 mi (49 km)
  5. Woodbury, TN 32 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.4922, -86.4775.