U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00446491 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Palmyra, VA

NOAA weather station Palmyra 3 S (USC00446491), Virginia · elevation 410 ft (125 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season180 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Palmyra, VASpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 21Frost season at Palmyra, VASpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 11October 8
50% (typical)April 23October 21
90% (likely)April 9November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
180 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 20 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25 (4 days later). Frost-free season 186 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Palmyra: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 11, 20% May 4, 30% April 30, 40% April 27, 50% April 23, 60% April 21, 70% April 17, 80% April 14, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 April 29, 2023 April 11, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 10, 2026 April 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 11Apr 23Apr 92021: April 242022: April 292023: April 112024: April 222025: April 102026: April 22Fall at Palmyra: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 8, 20% October 12, 30% October 15, 40% October 18, 50% October 21, 60% October 24, 70% October 26, 80% October 29, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 9, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 8Oct 21Nov 12021: November 32022: October 92023: November 22024: November 212025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24November 3
2022April 29October 9
2023April 11November 2
2024April 22November 21
2025April 10October 24
2026April 22season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 9 in Palmyra is a gamble, because there is a 90 % chance of a frost later than that date. The cautious spring date for tender crops is May 11, when the chance of a frost later than the date drops to 10 % chance.

The 50% date is April 23, meaning a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50% date is October 21, meaning a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. For finishing tender crops in the fall, the cautious date is October 8, when only a 10 % chance of a frost earlier than the date is recorded.

Hard frosts recorded at 28 °F are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates of April 9 and October 31 are key thresholds for growers.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 8" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Palmyra, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Charlottesville, VA — 21 mi; 2 — Louisa, VA — 21 mi; 3 — near Orange, VA — 30 mi; 4 — Ashland, VA — 43 mi; 5 — Staunton, VA — 51 mi.VA25 mi · 40 km1. Charlottesville, VA — 21 mi12. Louisa, VA — 21 mi23. near Orange, VA — 30 mi34. Ashland, VA — 43 mi45. Staunton, VA — 51 mi5
  1. Charlottesville, VA 21 mi (33 km)
  2. Louisa, VA 21 mi (34 km)
  3. near Orange, VA 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Ashland, VA 43 mi (69 km)
  5. Staunton, VA 51 mi (82 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.8142, -78.2644.