U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00256135 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Oakdale, NE

NOAA weather station Oakdale (USC00256135), Nebraska · elevation 1749 ft (533 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 17only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season153 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Oakdale, NESpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 153 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 4Frost season at Oakdale, NESpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 153 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 17September 22
50% (typical)May 4October 4
90% (likely)April 21October 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
153 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 3 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 8 (4 days later). Frost-free season 156 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Oakdale: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 17, 20% May 12, 30% May 9, 40% May 7, 50% May 4, 60% May 2, 70% April 30, 80% April 26, 90% April 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 24, 2026 May 6.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 17May 4Apr 212021: May 122022: April 262023: May 32024: April 242026: May 6Fall at Oakdale: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 22, 20% September 26, 30% September 30, 40% October 1, 50% October 4, 60% October 6, 70% October 9, 80% October 12, 90% October 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 11, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 22.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 22Oct 4Oct 162021: October 112022: October 82023: October 72024: October 142025: October 22
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 11
2022April 26October 8
2023May 3October 7
2024April 24October 14
2025incomplete recordOctober 22
2026May 6season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on April 21 in Oakdale carries a 90% chance that a light frost will still occur later that season, so it is a gamble for growers.

The 50% dates mark the point at which the odds of a 32 °F light frost are even. The 50% date is May 4 for spring, indicating a 50% chance of frost after that day, and the 50% date is October 4 for fall, indicating a 50% chance of frost before that day. These dates are not frost thresholds but help gauge risk, and the interval between them is 153 days.

A cautious plan would wait until the May 17 date, which has only a 10% chance of a later frost, and would aim to finish tender crops by September 22, which has only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier. Hard frost at 28 °F, with median dates April 23 and October 13, can injure plants that survive a light frost, making it a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 17" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Oakdale, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Elgin, NE — 8 mi; 2 — Ewing, NE — 24 mi; 3 — Albion, NE — 26 mi; 4 — near Norfolk, NE — 28 mi; 5 — O'Neill, NE — 45 mi.SD25 mi · 40 km1. Elgin, NE — 8 mi12. Ewing, NE — 24 mi23. Albion, NE — 26 mi34. near Norfolk, NE — 28 mi45. O'Neill, NE — 45 mi5
  1. Elgin, NE 8 mi (12 km)
  2. Ewing, NE 24 mi (38 km)
  3. Albion, NE 26 mi (42 km)
  4. near Norfolk, NE 28 mi (45 km)
  5. O'Neill, NE 45 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.0644, -97.9667.