U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00252595 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Elgin, NE

NOAA weather station Elgin (USC00252595), Nebraska · elevation 1935 ft (590 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season162 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elgin, NESpring: a frost after April 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 9Frost season at Elgin, NESpring: a frost after April 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 9 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 11September 25
50% (typical)April 29October 9
90% (likely)April 15October 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
162 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 30 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 13 (4 days later). Frost-free season 165 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elgin: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 11, 20% May 7, 30% May 4, 40% May 1, 50% April 29, 60% April 26, 70% April 23, 80% April 20, 90% April 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 25, 2025 April 21, 2026 May 6.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 11Apr 29Apr 152021: May 122022: April 262023: May 32024: April 252025: April 212026: May 6Fall at Elgin: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% September 29, 30% October 2, 40% October 5, 50% October 9, 60% October 11, 70% October 14, 80% October 18, 90% October 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 27, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 9Oct 222021: October 222022: October 82023: October 272024: October 142025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 22
2022April 26October 8
2023May 3October 27
2024April 25October 14
2025April 21October 30
2026May 6season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 11 marks the cautious spring date for Elgin, with only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, so a gardener can confidently set out tender crops after that day.

The 50% date is April 29, meaning a frost is equally likely to occur later than that day, and the 50% date is October 9, meaning a frost is equally likely to occur earlier than that day. September 25 is the cautious fall date, carrying a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier, allowing a gardener to finish harvesting tender crops before frost becomes more probable.

The 50% hard-frost dates are April 19 and October 19; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a 32 °F light frost, so it is a more critical threshold for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elgin, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Oakdale, NE — 8 mi; 2 — Albion, NE — 21 mi; 3 — Ewing, NE — 23 mi; 4 — near Norfolk, NE — 33 mi; 5 — Greeley, NE — 39 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Oakdale, NE — 8 mi12. Albion, NE — 21 mi23. Ewing, NE — 23 mi34. near Norfolk, NE — 33 mi45. Greeley, NE — 39 mi5
  1. Oakdale, NE 8 mi (12 km)
  2. Albion, NE 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Ewing, NE 23 mi (38 km)
  4. near Norfolk, NE 33 mi (53 km)
  5. Greeley, NE 39 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.9872, -98.0747.