U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415618 · Texas

Frost Dates for Marshall, TX

NOAA weather station Marshall (USC00415618), Texas · elevation 302 ft (92 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season233 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Marshall, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 11Frost season at Marshall, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 7October 27
50% (typical)March 20November 11
90% (likely)February 28November 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
233 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 24

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 18 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 11. Frost-free season 236 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Marshall: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 7, 20% April 3, 30% March 31, 40% March 25, 50% March 20, 60% March 16, 70% March 12, 80% March 6, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 5, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 23, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 7Mar 20Feb 282021: April 52023: March 212024: March 202025: March 232026: March 18Fall at Marshall: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% November 1, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 11, 60% November 14, 70% November 19, 80% November 23, 90% November 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 11Nov 302021: November 52022: October 192023: November 12024: November 302025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 5November 5
2022incomplete recordOctober 19
2023March 21November 1
2024March 20November 30
2025March 23November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 27 marks the cautious fall date in Marshall for finishing the harvest of tender crops, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 7, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later in the season; the gamble date is February 28, which has a 90 % chance of a frost later.

The 50 % date for light frost in spring is March 20, meaning a gardener faces an even chance of a frost later in the season, while the 50 % date for light frost in fall is November 11, indicating an even chance of a frost earlier in the season.

Hard frost is more critical because temperatures of 28 °F can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, as shown by the median hard-frost dates of March 5 in spring and November 24 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Marshall, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Longview, TX — 21 mi; 2 — Carthage, TX — 23 mi; 3 — Shreveport, LA — 29 mi; 4 — Henderson, TX — 35 mi; 5 — near Bossier City, LA — 41 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. near Longview, TX — 21 mi12. Carthage, TX — 23 mi23. Shreveport, LA — 29 mi34. Henderson, TX — 35 mi45. near Bossier City, LA — 41 mi5
  1. near Longview, TX 21 mi (34 km)
  2. Carthage, TX 23 mi (36 km)
  3. Shreveport, LA 29 mi (46 km)
  4. Henderson, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  5. near Bossier City, LA 41 mi (65 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.4892, -94.3289.