U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00411500 · Texas

Frost Dates for Carthage, TX

NOAA weather station Carthage (USC00411500), Texas · elevation 305 ft (93 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 31only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season255 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carthage, TXSpring: a frost after February 19 in 9 years out of 10, after March 8 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 255 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 8First frost ~Nov 19Frost season at Carthage, TXSpring: a frost after February 19 in 9 years out of 10, after March 8 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 255 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 8First frost ~Nov 19
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 31November 2
50% (typical)March 8November 19
90% (likely)February 19December 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
255 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 5 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 21 (2 days later). Frost-free season 261 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carthage: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 31, 20% March 24, 30% March 18, 40% March 13, 50% March 8, 60% March 4, 70% March 1, 80% February 25, 90% February 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 20, 2025 February 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Mar 31Mar 8Feb 192021: March 32022: March 142023: March 212024: February 202025: February 222026: March 18Fall at Carthage: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 7, 30% November 11, 40% November 14, 50% November 19, 60% November 25, 70% November 30, 80% December 2, 90% December 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 2, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 December 1, 2025 December 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 2Nov 19Dec 82021: January 22022: October 192023: November 22024: December 12025: December 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3January 2
2022March 14October 19
2023March 21November 2
2024February 20December 1
2025February 22December 2
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious spring date for light frost in Carthage is March 31, when there is only a 10 % chance of a frost later. This gives gardeners a low-risk window to set out tender crops.

The 50% date for light frost in spring is March 8 and the 50% date in fall is November 19; at each of these dates frost is equally likely to have occurred or not. The median hard-frost dates are February 24 and December 2, marking the point where a 28 °F event is as probable as its absence. The interval between the two 32 °F 50% dates spans 255 days, representing the central frost-free period recorded over 25 years.

For a cautious fall plan, the light-frost date to finish harvesting tender crops is November 2, with only a 10 % chance that frost has already arrived. Hard frosts matter more than light frosts because the lower 28 °F threshold can damage plant tissue that survives a 32 °F event.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 31" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carthage, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Longview, TX — 22 mi; 2 — Marshall, TX — 23 mi; 3 — Center, TX — 27 mi; 4 — Henderson, TX — 27 mi; 5 — Shreveport, LA — 35 mi.LA25 mi · 40 km1. near Longview, TX — 22 mi12. Marshall, TX — 23 mi23. Center, TX — 27 mi34. Henderson, TX — 27 mi45. Shreveport, LA — 35 mi5
  1. near Longview, TX 22 mi (36 km)
  2. Marshall, TX 23 mi (36 km)
  3. Center, TX 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Henderson, TX 27 mi (43 km)
  5. Shreveport, LA 35 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.1614, -94.3397.