U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014939 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Lincoln, NE

NOAA weather station Lincoln Municipal Airport (USW00014939), Nebraska · elevation 1190 ft (363 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season171 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lincoln, NESpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 13Frost season at Lincoln, NESpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 13
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7September 29
50% (typical)April 24October 13
90% (likely)April 10October 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
171 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 15
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 23 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 15 (2 days later). Frost-free season 174 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lincoln: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% May 3, 30% April 30, 40% April 27, 50% April 24, 60% April 21, 70% April 18, 80% April 15, 90% April 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 5, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 11, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 24Apr 102021: May 52022: April 262023: May 32024: April 212025: April 112026: May 2Fall at Lincoln: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 3, 30% October 7, 40% October 10, 50% October 13, 60% October 16, 70% October 18, 80% October 21, 90% October 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 21, 2022 October 7, 2023 October 27, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 22.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 13Oct 242021: October 212022: October 72023: October 272024: October 142025: October 22
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 5October 21
2022April 26October 7
2023May 3October 27
2024April 21October 14
2025April 11October 22
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 29 is the cautious fall date for Lincoln, indicating a 10 % chance that a light frost has occurred earlier and providing the point at which a gardener would aim to finish harvesting tender crops. By contrast, October 24 carries a 90 % chance that a light frost has already begun, making later tender crops a gamble.

The 50% dates, April 24 in spring and October 13 in fall, represent the moment when a light frost is equally likely to have happened or not. For a cautious plan, the spring light-frost date is May 7, when only a 10 % chance of frost later remains, while the fall cautious date is September 29. A hard frost at 28 °F, noted by its 50% dates of April 15 and October 22, can damage plants that would otherwise survive a 32 °F light frost, so it matters more to gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lincoln, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Crete, NE — 18 mi; 2 — Seward, NE — 18 mi; 3 — near Ashland, NE — 23 mi; 4 — Mead, NE — 25 mi; 5 — Syracuse, NE — 32 mi.IAMO25 mi · 40 km1. Crete, NE — 18 mi12. Seward, NE — 18 mi23. near Ashland, NE — 23 mi34. Mead, NE — 25 mi45. Syracuse, NE — 32 mi5
  1. Crete, NE 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Seward, NE 18 mi (29 km)
  3. near Ashland, NE 23 mi (37 km)
  4. Mead, NE 25 mi (39 km)
  5. Syracuse, NE 32 mi (51 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.8508, -96.7475.