U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00258395 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Syracuse, NE

NOAA weather station Syracuse (USC00258395), Nebraska · elevation 1100 ft (335 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season168 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Syracuse, NESpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 25 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 168 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 25First frost ~Oct 11Frost season at Syracuse, NESpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 25 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 168 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 25First frost ~Oct 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7September 25
50% (typical)April 25October 11
90% (likely)April 12October 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
168 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 16
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (3 days later). Frost-free season 170 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Syracuse: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% May 3, 30% April 30, 40% April 27, 50% April 25, 60% April 22, 70% April 19, 80% April 16, 90% April 12. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 6, 2022 May 23, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 22, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 25Apr 122021: May 62022: May 232023: April 242024: April 222026: May 3Fall at Syracuse: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% October 1, 30% October 5, 40% October 8, 50% October 11, 60% October 14, 70% October 17, 80% October 20, 90% October 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 18, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 17, 2024 October 14.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 11Oct 242021: October 182022: October 82023: October 172024: October 14
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 6October 18
2022May 23October 8
2023April 24October 17
2024April 22October 14
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 168 days between the 50% dates in Syracuse frame the span from April 25 to October 11 when the odds of a light frost are evenly balanced.

For a gardener, the 50% date in spring marks an even chance that a 32 °F frost could still occur later, while the fall 50% date marks an even chance a 32 °F frost could arrive earlier. The cautious spring date is May 7, when only a 10 % chance remains for a light frost, and the cautious fall date is September 25, when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has already arrived. The early spring date of April 12 and the late fall date of October 24 each carry a 90 % chance and are gambles.

Hard frosts at 28 °F are more damaging, and the median hard-frost dates are April 16 and October 22, indicating when a 50 % chance of such severe cold exists.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Syracuse, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Nebraska City, NE — 16 mi; 2 — Tecumseh, NE — 22 mi; 3 — near Ashland, NE — 28 mi; 4 — Sidney, IA — 29 mi; 5 — Auburn, NE — 31 mi.NEIAMO25 mi · 40 km1. Nebraska City, NE — 16 mi12. Tecumseh, NE — 22 mi23. near Ashland, NE — 28 mi34. Sidney, IA — 29 mi45. Auburn, NE — 31 mi5
  1. Nebraska City, NE 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Tecumseh, NE 22 mi (35 km)
  3. near Ashland, NE 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Sidney, IA 29 mi (47 km)
  5. Auburn, NE 31 mi (50 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.6661, -96.1892.