U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00304575 · New York

Frost Dates for Lansing Manor, NY

NOAA weather station Lansing Manor (USC00304575), New York · elevation 1100 ft (335 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season137 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lansing Manor, NYSpring: a frost after May 1 in 9 years out of 10, after May 18 in half of the years, after June 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 2 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 137 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 18First frost ~Oct 2Frost season at Lansing Manor, NYSpring: a frost after May 1 in 9 years out of 10, after May 18 in half of the years, after June 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 2 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 137 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 18First frost ~Oct 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 1September 19
50% (typical)May 18October 2
90% (likely)May 1October 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
137 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 6
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 14 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 4 (2 days later). Frost-free season 141 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lansing Manor: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 1, 20% May 27, 30% May 24, 40% May 21, 50% May 18, 60% May 14, 70% May 11, 80% May 7, 90% May 1. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2022 May 8, 2023 May 18, 2024 June 16, 2025 April 28, 2026 May 31.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 1May 18May 12022: May 82023: May 182024: June 162025: April 282026: May 31Fall at Lansing Manor: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 19, 20% September 24, 30% September 28, 40% October 1, 50% October 2, 60% October 4, 70% October 7, 80% October 10, 90% October 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2023 October 24, 2024 October 13, 2025 September 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 19Oct 2Oct 142023: October 242024: October 132025: September 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022May 8incomplete record
2023May 18October 24
2024June 16October 13
2025April 28September 21
2026May 31season not over yet

What these dates mean

June 1 marks the cautious spring date, giving a gardener enough confidence to set out tender crops with only a 10 % chance of a later light frost.

The 50 % date of May 18 indicates that a light frost is equally likely before or after that day, so planting at that point carries a balanced risk. The hard-frost median dates are May 6 in spring and October 12 in fall; a 28 °F frost can injure or kill plants that would survive a 32 °F chill. The 32 °F 50 % dates—May 18 in spring and October 2 in fall—are reference points, not frost dates, and the record spans 26 years, giving a solid statistical basis.

September 19 is the cautious fall date, showing only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived and allowing the gardener to finish harvesting tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lansing Manor, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cobleskill, NY — 15 mi; 2 — near Cairo, NY — 22 mi; 3 — near Ravena, NY — 27 mi; 4 — Emmons, NY — 28 mi; 5 — Cooperstown, NY — 30 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Cobleskill, NY — 15 mi12. near Cairo, NY — 22 mi23. near Ravena, NY — 27 mi34. Emmons, NY — 28 mi45. Cooperstown, NY — 30 mi5
  1. Cobleskill, NY 15 mi (24 km)
  2. near Cairo, NY 22 mi (36 km)
  3. near Ravena, NY 27 mi (44 km)
  4. Emmons, NY 28 mi (45 km)
  5. Cooperstown, NY 30 mi (48 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.4486, -74.4653.