U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00302366 · New York

Frost Dates near Cairo, NY

NOAA weather station East Jewett (USC00302366), New York · elevation 1991 ft (607 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

Cairo is the nearest town to the station (8.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season129 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Cairo, NYSpring: a frost after May 4 in 9 years out of 10, after May 20 in half of the years, after June 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 13 in 1 year out of 10, before September 27 in half of the years, before October 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 129 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 20First frost ~Sep 27Frost season near Cairo, NYSpring: a frost after May 4 in 9 years out of 10, after May 20 in half of the years, after June 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 13 in 1 year out of 10, before September 27 in half of the years, before October 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 129 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 20First frost ~Sep 27
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 2September 13
50% (typical)May 20September 27
90% (likely)May 4October 9
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
129 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 19 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 1 (4 days later). Frost-free season 132 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Cairo: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 2, 20% May 29, 30% May 25, 40% May 23, 50% May 20, 60% May 16, 70% May 13, 80% May 9, 90% May 4.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 2May 20May 4Fall near Cairo: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 13, 20% September 18, 30% September 21, 40% September 24, 50% September 27, 60% September 30, 70% October 2, 80% October 5, 90% October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 13Sep 27Oct 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

September 13 marks the cautious fall date in the Cairo area for finishing the harvest, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. For the spring season, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is June 2, when the probability of a frost later than that day is just 10%; planting on May 4 carries a 90% chance of frost and is a gamble.

The 50% light-frost date in spring is May 20, meaning there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50% light-frost date in fall is September 27, meaning there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date. The 50% hard-frost dates are May 5 in spring and October 7 in fall.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, so those median hard-frost dates are especially relevant for gardeners who must avoid temperatures that can kill plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cairo, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Ravena, NY — 20 mi; 2 — Lansing Manor, NY — 22 mi; 3 — near New Paltz, NY — 32 mi; 4 — Cobleskill, NY — 34 mi; 5 — Albany, NY — 39 mi.CTMAPAVT25 mi · 40 km1. near Ravena, NY — 20 mi12. Lansing Manor, NY — 22 mi23. near New Paltz, NY — 32 mi34. Cobleskill, NY — 34 mi45. Albany, NY — 39 mi5
  1. near Ravena, NY 20 mi (32 km)
  2. Lansing Manor, NY 22 mi (36 km)
  3. near New Paltz, NY 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Cobleskill, NY 34 mi (54 km)
  5. Albany, NY 39 mi (63 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.2344, -74.1444.