U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093993 · Arkansas

Frost Dates near Fayetteville, AR

NOAA weather station Fayetteville Drake Field (USW00093993), Arkansas · elevation 1251 ft (381 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Fayetteville is the nearest town to the station (3.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season188 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Fayetteville, ARSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 188 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 21Frost season near Fayetteville, ARSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 188 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 8
50% (typical)April 15October 21
90% (likely)March 31November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
188 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 3
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24 (3 days later). Frost-free season 191 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Fayetteville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 27, 30% April 23, 40% April 19, 50% April 15, 60% April 12, 70% April 9, 80% April 5, 90% March 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 14, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 8, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 15Mar 312021: April 222022: April 142023: April 242024: April 222025: April 82026: March 17Fall near Fayetteville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 8, 20% October 13, 30% October 16, 40% October 19, 50% October 21, 60% October 24, 70% October 27, 80% October 30, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 8Oct 21Nov 32021: November 52022: October 182023: October 302024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 14October 18
2023April 24October 30
2024April 22October 16
2025April 8November 2
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 31 in the Fayetteville area carries a 90% chance of a light frost later, making it a high-risk gamble. The cautious spring date for tender crops is May 1, when only a 10% chance of a light frost later remains.

In the fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 8, with a 10% chance of a light frost earlier, while November 3 is a gamble with a 90% chance of a light frost earlier. The 50% light-frost dates—April 15 in spring and October 21 in fall—mark the point at which a gardener faces equal odds of a light frost occurring. The median hard-frost dates are April 3 and October 31; hard frosts at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than the 32 °F light frosts.

A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can cause greater injury to tender vegetation.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 8" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Fayetteville, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Mountainburg, AR — 25 mi; 2 — Gravette, AR — 33 mi; 3 — Ozark, AR — 38 mi; 4 — Fort Smith, AR — 48 mi; 5 — Subiaco, AR — 57 mi.AROKMO25 mi · 40 km1. Mountainburg, AR — 25 mi12. Gravette, AR — 33 mi23. Ozark, AR — 38 mi34. Fort Smith, AR — 48 mi45. Subiaco, AR — 57 mi5
  1. Mountainburg, AR 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Gravette, AR 33 mi (53 km)
  3. Ozark, AR 38 mi (62 km)
  4. Fort Smith, AR 48 mi (77 km)
  5. Subiaco, AR 57 mi (92 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.0097, -94.1694.