U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00293142 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Farmington, NM

NOAA weather station Farmington Agricultural Science Center (USC00293142), New Mexico · elevation 5625 ft (1715 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season167 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Farmington, NMSpring: a frost after April 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 167 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 15Frost season at Farmington, NMSpring: a frost after April 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 167 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 13October 1
50% (typical)April 29October 15
90% (likely)April 15October 29
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
167 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 26

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 164 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Farmington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 13, 20% May 8, 30% May 4, 40% May 1, 50% April 29, 60% April 27, 70% April 24, 80% April 20, 90% April 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 24, 2022 May 5, 2023 April 29, 2024 May 9, 2026 May 7.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 13Apr 29Apr 152021: May 242022: May 52023: April 292024: May 92026: May 7Fall at Farmington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 6, 30% October 9, 40% October 12, 50% October 15, 60% October 18, 70% October 21, 80% October 24, 90% October 29. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 13, 2022 October 24, 2023 October 13, 2024 October 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 15Oct 292021: October 132022: October 242023: October 132024: October 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 24October 13
2022May 5October 24
2023April 29October 13
2024May 9October 10
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026May 7season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 167 days between the 50% dates in Farmington frame the window when tender crops can be grown without an even-odds chance of light frost. The 50% date is April 29 for spring and October 15 for fall, indicating a 50 % probability that a 32 °F frost will occur later (spring) or earlier (fall) than those days. A cautious spring plan uses the May 13 date, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later, while a cautious fall plan relies on the October 1 date, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost earlier. The 90 % gamble dates are April 15 and October 29, where the risk of frost is high.

The 50% hard-frost dates are April 17 and October 26, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Farmington, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cortez, CO — 48 mi; 2 — Dulce, NM — 74 mi; 3 — Canyon De Chelly, AZ — 78 mi; 4 — Bluff, UT — 80 mi; 5 — Torreon Navajo Mission, NM — 88 mi.NMAZCO50 mi · 80 km1. Cortez, CO — 48 mi12. Dulce, NM — 74 mi23. Canyon De Chelly, AZ — 78 mi34. Bluff, UT — 80 mi45. Torreon Navajo Mission, NM — 88 mi5
  1. Cortez, CO 48 mi (77 km)
  2. Dulce, NM 74 mi (120 km)
  3. Canyon De Chelly, AZ 78 mi (125 km)
  4. Bluff, UT 80 mi (129 km)
  5. Torreon Navajo Mission, NM 88 mi (142 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.6897, -108.3086.