U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00292608 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Dulce, NM

NOAA weather station Dulce (USC00292608), New Mexico · elevation 6793 ft (2071 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostJune 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season103 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Dulce, NMSpring: a frost after May 25 in 9 years out of 10, after June 9 in half of the years, after June 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 10 in 1 year out of 10, before September 22 in half of the years, before October 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 103 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Jun 9First frost ~Sep 22Frost season at Dulce, NMSpring: a frost after May 25 in 9 years out of 10, after June 9 in half of the years, after June 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 10 in 1 year out of 10, before September 22 in half of the years, before October 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 103 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Jun 9First frost ~Sep 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 27September 10
50% (typical)June 9September 22
90% (likely)May 25October 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
103 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
September 30

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost June 4 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost September 24 (2 days later). Frost-free season 111 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Dulce: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 27, 20% June 21, 30% June 16, 40% June 13, 50% June 9, 60% June 6, 70% June 3, 80% May 30, 90% May 25.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Jun 1Jul 1Jun 27Jun 9May 25Fall at Dulce: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 10, 20% September 14, 30% September 17, 40% September 20, 50% September 22, 60% September 24, 70% September 26, 80% September 28, 90% October 1.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 10Sep 22Oct 1
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

June 27 is the cautious spring date for Dulce, New Mexico; with only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The earlier June 9 date carries a 50 % chance of a frost later, while the May 25 date is a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost.

In the fall the cautious date is September 10, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived, allowing the final harvest of tender crops. The median September 22 date represents a 50 % chance of a frost earlier, and October 1 is a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost earlier.

Hard frosts at 28 °F, indicated by the 50 % dates May 23 and September 30, are more damaging than the 32 °F light frosts because they can kill or severely injure plants that survive milder freezes.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Dulce, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Chama, NM — 23 mi; 2 — Monte Vista, CO — 63 mi; 3 — Wolf Canyon, NM — 70 mi; 4 — near Alamosa, CO — 72 mi; 5 — Farmington, NM — 74 mi.NMCO50 mi · 80 km1. Chama, NM — 23 mi12. Monte Vista, CO — 63 mi23. Wolf Canyon, NM — 70 mi34. near Alamosa, CO — 72 mi45. Farmington, NM — 74 mi5
  1. Chama, NM 23 mi (38 km)
  2. Monte Vista, CO 63 mi (102 km)
  3. Wolf Canyon, NM 70 mi (112 km)
  4. near Alamosa, CO 72 mi (115 km)
  5. Farmington, NM 74 mi (120 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.9358, -107.