U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093808 · Kentucky

Frost Dates near Bowling Green, KY

NOAA weather station Bowling Green Warren County Airport (USW00093808), Kentucky · elevation 523 ft (159 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Bowling Green is the nearest town to the station (2.1 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season208 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Bowling Green, KYSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 31Frost season near Bowling Green, KYSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 31
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 20
50% (typical)April 5October 31
90% (likely)March 20November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
208 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (1 day later). Frost-free season 210 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Bowling Green: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 15, 30% April 11, 40% April 8, 50% April 5, 60% April 2, 70% March 31, 80% March 26, 90% March 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 April 10, 2023 March 29, 2024 April 6, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 5Mar 202021: April 32022: April 102023: March 292024: April 62025: March 212026: March 18Fall near Bowling Green: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 20, 20% October 23, 30% October 26, 40% October 29, 50% October 31, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 24, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 20Oct 31Nov 112021: November 32022: October 182023: October 312024: November 242025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 3
2022April 10October 18
2023March 29October 31
2024April 6November 24
2025March 21November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 21 is the cautious spring date for the Bowling Green area, with only a 10 % chance of a light frost later; it gives a gardener the confidence to set out tender crops at that time. By contrast, March 20 carries a 90 % chance and would be a gamble for those same crops.

The 50 % date is April 5, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost occurring later in spring, while the 50 % date is October 31, meaning an even chance of a light frost occurring earlier in fall. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 24 and November 10; these mark the points where a frost of 28 °F becomes as likely as not. A hard frost of 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost of 32 °F, so it matters more.

October 20 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, allowing a gardener to finish harvesting tender crops with minimal risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Bowling Green, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Barren River Lake, KY — 17 mi; 2 — Scottsville, KY — 19 mi; 3 — Portland, TN — 27 mi; 4 — Springfield, TN — 41 mi; 5 — Rough River Lake, KY — 45 mi.KYTN25 mi · 40 km1. Barren River Lake, KY — 17 mi12. Scottsville, KY — 19 mi23. Portland, TN — 27 mi34. Springfield, TN — 41 mi45. Rough River Lake, KY — 45 mi5
  1. Barren River Lake, KY 17 mi (28 km)
  2. Scottsville, KY 19 mi (30 km)
  3. Portland, TN 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Springfield, TN 41 mi (66 km)
  5. Rough River Lake, KY 45 mi (73 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.9647, -86.4239.