U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00150422 · Kentucky

Frost Dates for Barren River Lake, KY

NOAA weather station Barren River Lake (USC00150422), Kentucky · elevation 615 ft (188 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season198 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Barren River Lake, KYSpring: a frost after March 27 in 9 years out of 10, after April 12 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 198 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 12First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Barren River Lake, KYSpring: a frost after March 27 in 9 years out of 10, after April 12 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 198 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 12First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 30October 16
50% (typical)April 12October 29
90% (likely)March 27November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
198 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 10 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29. Frost-free season 202 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Barren River Lake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 30, 20% April 24, 30% April 19, 40% April 15, 50% April 12, 60% April 8, 70% April 5, 80% April 1, 90% March 27. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2022 April 3, 2023 April 26, 2024 April 7, 2026 March 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 30Apr 12Mar 272022: April 32023: April 262024: April 72026: March 19Fall at Barren River Lake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 26, 50% October 29, 60% October 31, 70% November 2, 80% November 6, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 December 1.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 16Oct 29Nov 112021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: December 1
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordNovember 4
2022April 3October 18
2023April 26October 31
2024April 7December 1
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026March 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 16 is the cautious fall date in Barren River Lake for finishing the harvest of tender crops, because there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 30, when the chance of a light frost later than that day is just 10 %; planting on April 12 carries a 50 % chance of frost and March 27 carries a 90 % chance, making it a gamble. The 50 % dates—April 12 for spring and October 29 for fall—represent the point at which a light frost is equally likely to have occurred or not, giving gardeners a reference for average risk. The median hard-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 6 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so it is a greater concern for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Barren River Lake, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Scottsville, KY — 12 mi; 2 — near Bowling Green, KY — 17 mi; 3 — Portland, TN — 31 mi; 4 — Carthage, TN — 46 mi; 5 — Springfield, TN — 49 mi.TN25 mi · 40 km1. Scottsville, KY — 12 mi12. near Bowling Green, KY — 17 mi23. Portland, TN — 31 mi34. Carthage, TN — 46 mi45. Springfield, TN — 49 mi5
  1. Scottsville, KY 12 mi (19 km)
  2. near Bowling Green, KY 17 mi (28 km)
  3. Portland, TN 31 mi (50 km)
  4. Carthage, TN 46 mi (74 km)
  5. Springfield, TN 49 mi (80 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.8978, -86.1247.