U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00238777 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Waynesville, MO

NOAA weather station Waynesville 2 W (USC00238777), Missouri · elevation 890 ft (271 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season185 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Waynesville, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 185 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 21Frost season at Waynesville, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 185 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 2October 6
50% (typical)April 15October 21
90% (likely)March 29November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
185 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 13 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23 (2 days later). Frost-free season 193 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Waynesville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 2, 20% April 27, 30% April 23, 40% April 18, 50% April 15, 60% April 11, 70% April 7, 80% April 3, 90% March 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 2Apr 15Mar 292021: April 232022: April 202024: March 292025: April 12Fall at Waynesville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 11, 30% October 15, 40% October 18, 50% October 21, 60% October 23, 70% October 26, 80% October 29, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 21Nov 12021: November 42022: October 182023: October 302024: October 162025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 4
2022April 20October 18
2023incomplete recordOctober 30
2024March 29October 16
2025April 12November 10
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The 185 days between the 32 °F 50% dates in Waynesville—April 15 and October 21—frame the interval when a light frost is as likely as not. On April 15 the chance of a light frost later in the season is 50 %, and on October 21 the chance of a light frost earlier in the season is 50 %.

The cautious plan for tender crops uses the May 2 date in spring, when there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, and the October 6 date in fall, when only a 10 % chance exists of a light frost earlier. The 90 % dates—March 29 in spring and November 1 in fall—represent a gamble. A hard frost at 28 °F, noted by the median dates April 1 and October 31, can cause far more damage than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Waynesville, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Licking, MO — 26 mi; 2 — near Rolla, MO — 27 mi; 3 — Lebanon, MO — 27 mi; 4 — Vichy Rolla National Airport, MO — 33 mi; 5 — Salem, MO — 40 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Licking, MO — 26 mi12. near Rolla, MO — 27 mi23. Lebanon, MO — 27 mi34. Vichy Rolla National Airport, MO — 33 mi45. Salem, MO — 40 mi5
  1. Licking, MO 26 mi (42 km)
  2. near Rolla, MO 27 mi (43 km)
  3. Lebanon, MO 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Vichy Rolla National Airport, MO 33 mi (54 km)
  5. Salem, MO 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.8131, -92.2317.