U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00419191 · Texas

Frost Dates for Turkey, TX

NOAA weather station Turkey (USC00419191), Texas · elevation 2330 ft (710 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season211 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Turkey, TXSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 4 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 211 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 4First frost ~Nov 3Frost season at Turkey, TXSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 4 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 211 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 4First frost ~Nov 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 19
50% (typical)April 4November 3
90% (likely)March 15November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
211 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 6 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 4 (1 day later). Frost-free season 211 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Turkey: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 16, 30% April 10, 40% April 7, 50% April 4, 60% April 1, 70% March 29, 80% March 22, 90% March 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 March 25, 2023 April 7, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 4Mar 152021: April 222022: March 252023: April 72024: March 292025: April 72026: March 17Fall at Turkey: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 19, 20% October 25, 30% October 29, 40% November 1, 50% November 3, 60% November 5, 70% November 7, 80% November 11, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 November 6, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 20, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 19Nov 3Nov 162021: November 132022: November 62023: October 292024: November 202025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 13
2022March 25November 6
2023April 7October 29
2024March 29November 20
2025April 7October 30
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

211 days separate the two 32 °F 50% dates for Turkey, Texas – April 4 in spring and November 3 in fall – defining the period in which a gardener can expect an even chance of a light frost either side of the season. The 50% dates themselves are markers of median risk, meaning there is a 50 % chance of a light frost occurring later than April 4 and earlier than November 3.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 21, when only a 10 % chance remains of a light frost later; planting on March 15 carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble. In the fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 19, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier; waiting until November 16 involves a 90 % chance of a frost and is risky. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 21 and November 12, and a hard frost at 28 °F can kill or severely damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Turkey, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Silverton, TX — 24 mi; 2 — Memphis, TX — 31 mi; 3 — Childress, TX — 35 mi; 4 — Floydada, TX — 38 mi; 5 — Plainview, TX — 48 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Silverton, TX — 24 mi12. Memphis, TX — 31 mi23. Childress, TX — 35 mi34. Floydada, TX — 38 mi45. Plainview, TX — 48 mi5
  1. Silverton, TX 24 mi (38 km)
  2. Memphis, TX 31 mi (49 km)
  3. Childress, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Floydada, TX 38 mi (61 km)
  5. Plainview, TX 48 mi (77 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.3956, -100.8972.