U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00358536 · Oregon

Frost Dates for Toketee Falls, OR

NOAA weather station Toketee Falls (USC00358536), Oregon · elevation 2060 ft (628 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season171 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Toketee Falls, ORSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 28 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 18Frost season at Toketee Falls, ORSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 28 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 18
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 16September 28
50% (typical)April 29October 18
90% (likely)April 9November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
171 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 30 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 18. Frost-free season 174 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Toketee Falls: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 16, 20% May 10, 30% May 6, 40% May 2, 50% April 29, 60% April 26, 70% April 21, 80% April 16, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 8, 2022 April 24, 2023 April 25, 2024 May 3, 2025 April 23, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 16Apr 29Apr 92021: May 82022: April 242023: April 252024: May 32025: April 232026: April 19Fall at Toketee Falls: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 28, 20% October 4, 30% October 9, 40% October 14, 50% October 18, 60% October 22, 70% October 25, 80% October 29, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 7, 2022 October 27, 2023 October 27, 2024 October 18, 2025 November 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 28Oct 18Nov 52021: October 72022: October 272023: October 272024: October 182025: November 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 8October 7
2022April 24October 27
2023April 25October 27
2024May 3October 18
2025April 23November 19
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 171 days between the 32°F 50% dates of April 29 and October 18 at Toketee Falls mark the span during which a light frost is equally likely to have occurred or not, giving gardeners a median window for tender-crop activities. The spring 50% date of April 29 and the fall 50% date of October 18 are not frost dates themselves; they simply indicate the point at which the chance of a frost later (spring) or earlier (fall) is 50 %.

For a cautious spring schedule, the date to set out tender crops is May 16, when there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost later. In the fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 28, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. The hard-frost 50% dates—March 30 in spring and November 9 in fall—show when a 28 °F frost is equally likely, and a hard frost matters more because temperatures at 28 °F can cause far more serious plant damage than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Toketee Falls, ORNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Oakridge, OR — 32 mi; 2 — Prospect, OR — 38 mi; 3 — near Shady Cove, OR — 43 mi; 4 — Dorena, OR — 43 mi; 5 — Cottage Grove, OR — 46 mi.OR25 mi · 40 km1. near Oakridge, OR — 32 mi12. Prospect, OR — 38 mi23. near Shady Cove, OR — 43 mi34. Dorena, OR — 43 mi45. Cottage Grove, OR — 46 mi5
  1. near Oakridge, OR 32 mi (52 km)
  2. Prospect, OR 38 mi (60 km)
  3. near Shady Cove, OR 43 mi (69 km)
  4. Dorena, OR 43 mi (70 km)
  5. Cottage Grove, OR 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 43.275, -122.4497.