U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014771 · New York

Frost Dates near Syracuse, NY

NOAA weather station Syracuse Hancock International Airport (USW00014771), New York · elevation 413 ft (126 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

Syracuse is the nearest town to the station (4.8 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season173 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Syracuse, NYSpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 19 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 19Frost season near Syracuse, NYSpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 19 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 19
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 13October 2
50% (typical)April 29October 19
90% (likely)April 16November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
173 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 16
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 29 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24 (5 days later). Frost-free season 178 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Syracuse: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 13, 20% May 8, 30% May 5, 40% May 2, 50% April 29, 60% April 26, 70% April 23, 80% April 20, 90% April 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 May 1, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 18, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 13Apr 29Apr 162021: April 222022: May 12023: May 182024: April 262025: April 182026: April 21Fall near Syracuse: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 2, 20% October 7, 30% October 11, 40% October 15, 50% October 19, 60% October 22, 70% October 26, 80% October 31, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 28, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 3, 2025 October 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 2Oct 19Nov 42021: November 32022: October 282023: November 22024: November 32025: October 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 3
2022May 1October 28
2023May 18November 2
2024April 26November 3
2025April 18October 10
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 173 days between the 50% dates of April 29 in spring and October 19 in fall define the central window for tender crops in the Syracuse area. Those median dates indicate an even chance of a light frost, so a gardener can expect roughly half of the years to see a frost before or after them.

In a cautious plan the spring light-frost date is May 13, when there is only a 10 % chance of a frost later, while planting on April 16 carries a 90 % chance of a frost and is a gamble. In the fall the cautious date is October 2, with a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, and waiting until November 4 means a 90 % chance of a frost and is risky. A hard frost at 28 °F, whose 50 % dates are April 16 and November 2, can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, making it a more critical threshold for growers.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Syracuse, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Oswego, NY — 32 mi; 2 — near Union Springs, NY — 38 mi; 3 — Sherburne, NY — 43 mi; 4 — Boonville, NY — 43 mi; 5 — near Ithaca, NY — 49 mi.NY25 mi · 40 km1. Oswego, NY — 32 mi12. near Union Springs, NY — 38 mi23. Sherburne, NY — 43 mi34. Boonville, NY — 43 mi45. near Ithaca, NY — 49 mi5
  1. Oswego, NY 32 mi (51 km)
  2. near Union Springs, NY 38 mi (62 km)
  3. Sherburne, NY 43 mi (69 km)
  4. Boonville, NY 43 mi (70 km)
  5. near Ithaca, NY 49 mi (79 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 43.1111, -76.1039.