U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00238082 · Missouri

Frost Dates near Stockton, MO

NOAA weather station Stockton Dam (USC00238082), Missouri · elevation 922 ft (281 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Stockton is the nearest town to the station (1.3 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season207 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Stockton, MOSpring: a frost after March 21 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Oct 30Frost season near Stockton, MOSpring: a frost after March 21 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 17
50% (typical)April 6October 30
90% (likely)March 21November 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
207 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 28 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 208 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Stockton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 17, 30% April 12, 40% April 9, 50% April 6, 60% April 2, 70% March 31, 80% March 26, 90% March 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 19, 2023 March 29, 2024 March 28, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 6Mar 212021: April 222022: April 192023: March 292024: March 282025: April 92026: March 29Fall near Stockton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 17, 20% October 21, 30% October 25, 40% October 27, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 8, 90% November 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 26, 2025 November 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 17Oct 30Nov 142021: November 132022: October 182023: October 302024: November 262025: November 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 13
2022April 19October 18
2023March 29October 30
2024March 28November 26
2025April 9November 9
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on March 21 in the Stockton area carries a 90% chance of a light frost later, making it a gamble for growers.

The 50% date is April 6, which corresponds to an even chance of a frost in spring, and the 50% date is October 30, which corresponds to an even chance of a frost in fall. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 23, while the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 17. A hard frost at 28°F can injure plants that would survive a light frost at 32°F, so the 50% hard-frost dates—March 27 in spring and November 8 in fall—are important reference points.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 17" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Stockton, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Bolivar, MO — 22 mi; 2 — Lamar, MO — 29 mi; 3 — Nevada, MO — 34 mi; 4 — Appleton City, MO — 37 mi; 5 — Springfield, MO — 38 mi.KS25 mi · 40 km1. Bolivar, MO — 22 mi12. Lamar, MO — 29 mi23. Nevada, MO — 34 mi34. Appleton City, MO — 37 mi45. Springfield, MO — 38 mi5
  1. Bolivar, MO 22 mi (35 km)
  2. Lamar, MO 29 mi (46 km)
  3. Nevada, MO 34 mi (55 km)
  4. Appleton City, MO 37 mi (59 km)
  5. Springfield, MO 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.6967, -93.7725.