U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00228374 · Mississippi

Frost Dates near Starkville, MS

NOAA weather station State University (USC00228374), Mississippi · elevation 185 ft (56 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Starkville is the nearest town to the station (2.5 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season233 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Starkville, MSSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 23 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 23First frost ~Nov 8Frost season near Starkville, MSSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 23 in half of the years, after April 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 23First frost ~Nov 8
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 13October 27
50% (typical)March 23November 8
90% (likely)February 28December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
233 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 7
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 16 (7 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 8. Frost-free season 236 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Starkville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 13, 20% April 5, 30% April 1, 40% March 28, 50% March 23, 60% March 18, 70% March 15, 80% March 7, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 8, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 13Mar 23Feb 282021: March 82022: March 142023: March 212025: March 222026: March 18Fall near Starkville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% October 31, 30% November 2, 40% November 5, 50% November 8, 60% November 12, 70% November 16, 80% November 23, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 19, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 8Dec 12021: November 192022: October 202023: November 12024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 8November 19
2022March 14October 20
2023March 21November 1
2024incomplete recordNovember 29
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 28 in the Starkville area carries a 90% chance of a light frost later in the season, making it a risky gamble. The same level of risk applies to counting on tender crops through December 1, when a 90% chance of a light frost earlier in the season exists.

The 50% date for light frost in spring is March 23, meaning there is an even chance of a frost occurring later in the season. In fall, the 50% date is November 8, indicating an even chance of a frost occurring earlier in the season. Gardeners who prefer a cautious approach would aim to set out tender crops after the April 13 cautious date and to finish harvesting them before the October 27 cautious date, each carrying only a 10% chance of a light frost crossing the threshold.

Hard frost, defined at 28 °F, is more damaging than light frost at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates of March 7 and November 22 are worth noting for protecting vulnerable plants.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Starkville, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Pontotoc, MS — 48 mi; 2 — Verona, MS — 48 mi; 3 — Winona, MS — 49 mi; 4 — Philadelphia, MS — 52 mi; 5 — Tupelo, MS — 55 mi.AL50 mi · 80 km1. Pontotoc, MS — 48 mi12. Verona, MS — 48 mi23. Winona, MS — 49 mi34. Philadelphia, MS — 52 mi45. Tupelo, MS — 55 mi5
  1. Pontotoc, MS 48 mi (77 km)
  2. Verona, MS 48 mi (78 km)
  3. Winona, MS 49 mi (78 km)
  4. Philadelphia, MS 52 mi (84 km)
  5. Tupelo, MS 55 mi (88 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.4692, -88.7822.