U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00408405 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Smithville, TN

NOAA weather station Smithville 2 SE (USC00408405), Tennessee · elevation 890 ft (271 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season187 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Smithville, TNSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 22Frost season at Smithville, TNSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 2October 10
50% (typical)April 18October 22
90% (likely)April 2November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
187 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 16 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25 (3 days later). Frost-free season 191 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Smithville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 2, 20% April 28, 30% April 23, 40% April 21, 50% April 18, 60% April 14, 70% April 11, 80% April 8, 90% April 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 2Apr 18Apr 22021: May 13Fall at Smithville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 10, 20% October 15, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 22, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 31, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 10Oct 22Nov 42021: November 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13November 3
2022incomplete recordno data
2023no datano data
2024no datano data
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on the early spring date of April 2 is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a light frost later in the season. The cautious spring date for setting out those crops is May 2, when only a 10% chance of a light frost remains.

The 50% dates give a middle point for risk assessment: the median light-frost date is April 18 in spring and October 22 in fall, meaning a light frost is equally likely on either side of each of those days. The hard-frost 50% dates are April 4 and November 1, marking when a temperature of 28 °F is equally likely to have occurred.

In the fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 10, which carries only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, so it represents a greater threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Smithville, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Sparta, TN — 18 mi; 2 — Woodbury, TN — 18 mi; 3 — McMinnville, TN — 19 mi; 4 — Cookeville, TN — 20 mi; 5 — Carthage, TN — 23 mi.KY25 mi · 40 km1. near Sparta, TN — 18 mi12. Woodbury, TN — 18 mi23. McMinnville, TN — 19 mi34. Cookeville, TN — 20 mi45. Carthage, TN — 23 mi5
  1. near Sparta, TN 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Woodbury, TN 18 mi (29 km)
  3. McMinnville, TN 19 mi (30 km)
  4. Cookeville, TN 20 mi (32 km)
  5. Carthage, TN 23 mi (37 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.9419, -85.7892.