U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00417841 · Texas

Frost Dates for Rusk, TX

NOAA weather station Rusk (USC00417841), Texas · elevation 695 ft (212 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season263 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Rusk, TXSpring: a frost after February 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 7 in half of the years, after March 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 25 in half of the years, before December 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 7First frost ~Nov 25Frost season at Rusk, TXSpring: a frost after February 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 7 in half of the years, after March 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 25 in half of the years, before December 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 7First frost ~Nov 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 29November 5
50% (typical)March 7November 25
90% (likely)February 15December 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
263 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 5 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 25. Frost-free season 264 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Rusk: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 29, 20% March 22, 30% March 16, 40% March 11, 50% March 7, 60% March 3, 70% February 28, 80% February 23, 90% February 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 19, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 29Mar 7Feb 152021: February 212023: March 202024: February 192026: March 18Fall at Rusk: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 5, 20% November 10, 30% November 15, 40% November 20, 50% November 25, 60% November 30, 70% December 3, 80% December 7, 90% December 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 2, 2022 November 14, 2023 November 1, 2024 December 6, 2025 December 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 5Nov 25Dec 142021: January 22022: November 142023: November 12024: December 62025: December 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21January 2
2022incomplete recordNovember 14
2023March 20November 1
2024February 19December 6
2025incomplete recordDecember 2
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of February 15 in Rusk carries a 90 % chance of a light frost and is therefore a gamble for a gardener.

The 50 % date in spring is March 7; it marks the point at which a light frost is as likely as not. Gardeners who want to limit risk use the cautious spring date of March 29, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains. In the fall the 50 % date is November 25, while the cautious date for finishing tender crops is November 5, which carries only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier.

Hard frost at 28 °F (February 23 in spring and December 7 in fall) can injure plants that would survive a 32 °F light frost, making it a more serious threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 5" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Rusk, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Nacogdoches, TX — 32 mi; 2 — Henderson, TX — 33 mi; 3 — Tyler, TX — 36 mi; 4 — Lufkin, TX — 46 mi; 5 — near Longview, TX — 47 mi.LA25 mi · 40 km1. Nacogdoches, TX — 32 mi12. Henderson, TX — 33 mi23. Tyler, TX — 36 mi34. Lufkin, TX — 46 mi45. near Longview, TX — 47 mi5
  1. Nacogdoches, TX 32 mi (52 km)
  2. Henderson, TX 33 mi (53 km)
  3. Tyler, TX 36 mi (57 km)
  4. Lufkin, TX 46 mi (74 km)
  5. near Longview, TX 47 mi (76 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.8092, -95.1428.