U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00227128 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for Poplarville, MS

NOAA weather station Poplarville Experiment Station (USC00227128), Mississippi · elevation 313 ft (95 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season257 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Poplarville, MSSpring: a frost after February 16 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after April 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 257 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 21Frost season at Poplarville, MSSpring: a frost after February 16 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after April 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 257 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 1November 2
50% (typical)March 10November 21
90% (likely)February 16December 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
257 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 6 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 19 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 258 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Poplarville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 1, 20% March 23, 30% March 18, 40% March 14, 50% March 10, 60% March 5, 70% March 1, 80% February 24, 90% February 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 February 22, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 1Mar 10Feb 162021: February 212024: March 202025: February 222026: March 17Fall at Poplarville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 7, 30% November 12, 40% November 17, 50% November 21, 60% November 25, 70% December 1, 80% December 4, 90% December 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2024 November 30, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 2Nov 21Dec 122024: November 302025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21incomplete record
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024March 20November 30
2025February 22November 11
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 1 is the cautious spring date in Poplarville, allowing a gardener to set out tender crops when only a 10 % chance remains of a later light frost. The median spring light-frost date is March 10, indicating an even odds point for when a frost might occur. Planting as early as February 16 carries a 90 % chance of a frost and is therefore a gamble.

In the fall, November 2 is the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops, when there is just a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived. The median fall light-frost date is November 21. The 50 % hard-frost dates are February 24 in spring and December 3 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that would survive the milder 32 °F light frost, making it a more critical threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Poplarville, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hattiesburg, MS — 31 mi; 2 — Columbia, MS — 33 mi; 3 — Slidell, LA — 38 mi; 4 — Beaumont Expstation, MS — 46 mi; 5 — near McComb, MS — 60 mi.LA25 mi · 40 km1. Hattiesburg, MS — 31 mi12. Columbia, MS — 33 mi23. Slidell, LA — 38 mi34. Beaumont Expstation, MS — 46 mi45. near McComb, MS — 60 mi5
  1. Hattiesburg, MS 31 mi (50 km)
  2. Columbia, MS 33 mi (53 km)
  3. Slidell, LA 38 mi (61 km)
  4. Beaumont Expstation, MS 46 mi (74 km)
  5. near McComb, MS 60 mi (96 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.8408, -89.5453.