U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093139 · Arizona

Frost Dates for Payson, AZ

NOAA weather station Payson (USW00093139), Arizona · elevation 4850 ft (1478 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 20only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season176 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Payson, AZSpring: a frost after April 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 176 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 24Frost season at Payson, AZSpring: a frost after April 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 176 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 20October 11
50% (typical)April 29October 24
90% (likely)April 13November 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
176 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (3 days later). Frost-free season 181 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Payson: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 20, 20% May 12, 30% May 7, 40% May 2, 50% April 29, 60% April 26, 70% April 22, 80% April 18, 90% April 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 23, 2022 May 12, 2023 April 15, 2024 April 16, 2025 April 28, 2026 April 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Jun 1May 20Apr 29Apr 132021: May 232022: May 122023: April 152024: April 162025: April 282026: April 28Fall at Payson: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 15, 30% October 19, 40% October 22, 50% October 24, 60% October 28, 70% November 1, 80% November 4, 90% November 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 13, 2022 October 24, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 30, 2025 November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 24Nov 82021: October 132022: October 242023: October 312024: October 302025: November 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 23October 13
2022May 12October 24
2023April 15October 31
2024April 16October 30
2025April 28November 21
2026April 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 13 in Payson is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a frost later than that date. The cautious alternative is May 20, when the probability of a later frost drops to 10%. The 50% date of April 29 shows the point at which the chance of a frost later is even.

In the fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 11, with only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier. Waiting until November 8 would be a gamble, as a frost earlier than that date occurs with 90% likelihood. The 50% date of October 24 marks an even odds point for a frost earlier. The 50% hard-frost dates are April 10 in spring and November 6 in fall, and hard frost matters more because 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 20" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Payson, AZNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Camp Verde, AZ — 38 mi; 2 — Cordes, AZ — 47 mi; 3 — Jerome, AZ — 57 mi; 4 — Winslow, AZ — 65 mi; 5 — near Flagstaff, AZ — 66 mi.AZ25 mi · 40 km1. near Camp Verde, AZ — 38 mi12. Cordes, AZ — 47 mi23. Jerome, AZ — 57 mi34. Winslow, AZ — 65 mi45. near Flagstaff, AZ — 66 mi5
  1. near Camp Verde, AZ 38 mi (62 km)
  2. Cordes, AZ 47 mi (76 km)
  3. Jerome, AZ 57 mi (91 km)
  4. Winslow, AZ 65 mi (105 km)
  5. near Flagstaff, AZ 66 mi (106 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.2325, -111.3447.