U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00126705 · Indiana

Frost Dates for Paoli, IN

NOAA weather station Paoli (USC00126705), Indiana · elevation 560 ft (171 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season178 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Paoli, INSpring: a frost after April 6 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 178 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 18Frost season at Paoli, INSpring: a frost after April 6 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 178 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 18
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7October 6
50% (typical)April 21October 18
90% (likely)April 6October 29
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
178 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 8
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 21 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 22 (4 days later). Frost-free season 183 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Paoli: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% May 2, 30% April 29, 40% April 25, 50% April 21, 60% April 18, 70% April 15, 80% April 11, 90% April 6.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 21Apr 6Fall at Paoli: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 10, 30% October 13, 40% October 16, 50% October 18, 60% October 21, 70% October 23, 80% October 25, 90% October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 18Oct 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

May 7 is the cautious spring date for light frost (32 °F); with only a 10 % chance of a frost later, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops on that day. The opposite side of the season has October 6 as the cautious fall date, when there is just a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived, making it a reliable point to finish harvesting tender crops.

The 50% dates mark the median point of frost risk: April 21 carries a 50 % chance of a light frost later in spring, and October 18 carries a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier in fall. Hard-frost risk is highlighted by the 28 °F 50% dates, April 8 and October 29, because a hard frost can injure plants that survive a light frost, making those dates especially significant for protecting vulnerable crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Paoli, INNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near French Lick, IN — 13 mi; 2 — Shoals, IN — 17 mi; 3 — near Oolitic, IN — 23 mi; 4 — near Bloomington, IN — 43 mi; 5 — Tell City, IN — 44 mi.KYIL25 mi · 40 km1. near French Lick, IN — 13 mi12. Shoals, IN — 17 mi23. near Oolitic, IN — 23 mi34. near Bloomington, IN — 43 mi45. Tell City, IN — 44 mi5
  1. near French Lick, IN 13 mi (22 km)
  2. Shoals, IN 17 mi (27 km)
  3. near Oolitic, IN 23 mi (37 km)
  4. near Bloomington, IN 43 mi (69 km)
  5. Tell City, IN 44 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.5556, -86.4858.