U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00086240 · Florida

Frost Dates for Niceville, FL

NOAA weather station Niceville (USC00086240), Florida · elevation 60 ft (18 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 31only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season253 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Niceville, FLSpring: a frost after February 14 in 9 years out of 10, after March 12 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 253 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 12First frost ~Nov 19Frost season at Niceville, FLSpring: a frost after February 14 in 9 years out of 10, after March 12 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 19 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 253 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 12First frost ~Nov 19
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 31November 3
50% (typical)March 12November 19
90% (likely)February 14December 13
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
253 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 7 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 19. Frost-free season 257 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Niceville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 31, 20% March 25, 30% March 20, 40% March 16, 50% March 12, 60% March 6, 70% February 28, 80% February 24, 90% February 14. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 15, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 21, 2025 February 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 31Mar 12Feb 142021: February 212022: March 152023: March 212024: February 212025: February 222026: March 18Fall at Niceville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 3, 20% November 7, 30% November 11, 40% November 16, 50% November 19, 60% November 23, 70% November 30, 80% December 4, 90% December 13. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 27, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 29, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 3Nov 19Dec 132021: November 272022: October 202023: November 292024: November 302025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21November 27
2022March 15October 20
2023March 21November 29
2024February 21November 30
2025February 22November 11
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on February 14 in Niceville carries a 90 % chance of a light frost later, making it a high-risk gamble. The median, even-odds point for a spring light frost is March 12, while the median for the fall is November 19; these 50 % dates simply mark the day when a frost is equally likely to occur on either side. A cautious planting schedule uses the March 31 date, which has only a 10 % chance of a later frost, and the November 3 date, which has only a 10 % chance of an earlier frost, to reduce risk for tender crops. Hard frost at 28 °F, recorded with median dates of February 25 in spring and December 5 in fall, can damage plants that survive a light frost, so it is a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 31" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 3" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Niceville, FLNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Crestview, FL — 17 mi; 2 — near Geneva, AL — 51 mi; 3 — Brewton, AL — 53 mi; 4 — Chipley, FL — 59 mi; 5 — Evergreen, AL — 69 mi.FLAL25 mi · 40 km1. near Crestview, FL — 17 mi12. near Geneva, AL — 51 mi23. Brewton, AL — 53 mi34. Chipley, FL — 59 mi45. Evergreen, AL — 69 mi5
  1. near Crestview, FL 17 mi (28 km)
  2. near Geneva, AL 51 mi (82 km)
  3. Brewton, AL 53 mi (86 km)
  4. Chipley, FL 59 mi (94 km)
  5. Evergreen, AL 69 mi (111 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.5317, -86.4928.