U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00152791 · Kentucky

Frost Dates near Morehead, KY

NOAA weather station Cave Run Lake (USC00152791), Kentucky · elevation 840 ft (256 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

Morehead is the nearest town to the station (6.9 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season189 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Morehead, KYSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 25Frost season near Morehead, KYSpring: a frost after April 2 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 6October 13
50% (typical)April 17October 25
90% (likely)April 2November 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
189 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 3
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 16 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (2 days later). Frost-free season 194 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Morehead: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 6, 20% April 30, 30% April 24, 40% April 20, 50% April 17, 60% April 14, 70% April 11, 80% April 7, 90% April 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 April 21, 2023 April 26, 2024 April 23, 2025 April 14, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 6Apr 17Apr 22021: April 242022: April 212023: April 262024: April 232025: April 142026: March 29Fall near Morehead: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 13, 20% October 17, 30% October 20, 40% October 22, 50% October 25, 60% October 28, 70% October 30, 80% November 1, 90% November 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 9, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 22, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 13Oct 25Nov 62021: October 272022: October 92023: November 12024: November 222025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24October 27
2022April 21October 9
2023April 26November 1
2024April 23November 22
2025April 14October 25
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 2 in the Morehead area is a gamble, because there is a 90 % chance of a light frost later than that date. The cautious spring date for tender crops is May 6, when only a 10 % chance of a light frost remains.

April 17 marks the 50 % spring date, meaning a light frost is equally likely to occur later or not. In the fall, October 25 is the 50 % date, indicating an even chance that a light frost has already arrived earlier. The 50 % hard-frost dates are April 3 in spring and November 4 in fall.

Finishing harvest of tender crops before the cautious fall date of October 13 limits the risk to 10 % of a light frost arriving earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so those dates are critical for protecting growth.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Morehead, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Jackson, KY — 39 mi; 2 — Cynthiana, KY — 45 mi; 3 — South Point, OH — 55 mi; 4 — near Huntington, WV — 56 mi; 5 — near Sciotodale, OH — 56 mi.WV25 mi · 40 km1. Jackson, KY — 39 mi12. Cynthiana, KY — 45 mi23. South Point, OH — 55 mi34. near Huntington, WV — 56 mi45. near Sciotodale, OH — 56 mi5
  1. Jackson, KY 39 mi (62 km)
  2. Cynthiana, KY 45 mi (73 km)
  3. South Point, OH 55 mi (89 km)
  4. near Huntington, WV 56 mi (90 km)
  5. near Sciotodale, OH 56 mi (90 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.1228, -83.5328.