U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093985 · Texas

Frost Dates for Mineral Wells, TX

NOAA weather station Mineral Wells Airport (USW00093985), Texas · elevation 930 ft (284 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season231 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Mineral Wells, TXSpring: a frost after March 3 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 231 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 10Frost season at Mineral Wells, TXSpring: a frost after March 3 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 231 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 14October 27
50% (typical)March 24November 10
90% (likely)March 3November 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
231 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 21

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 21 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 9 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 234 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Mineral Wells: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 14, 20% April 6, 30% April 2, 40% March 29, 50% March 24, 60% March 19, 70% March 14, 80% March 10, 90% March 3. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 March 24, 2023 March 19, 2024 March 1, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 14Mar 24Mar 32021: April 212022: March 242023: March 192024: March 12026: March 17Fall at Mineral Wells: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% November 1, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 10, 60% November 13, 70% November 17, 80% November 21, 90% November 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 19, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 10Nov 272021: November 192022: November 122023: October 312024: November 212025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 19
2022March 24November 12
2023March 19October 31
2024March 1November 21
2025incomplete recordNovember 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 14 is the cautious spring date in Mineral Wells, marking a 10 % chance of a later light frost and allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The early spring gamble date of March 3 carries a 90 % chance of frost later, so planting then is risky.

The 50 % date, March 24, indicates an even chance of frost later in spring, while the 50 % fall date, November 10, indicates an even chance of frost earlier in fall; together they define the midpoint of frost risk for the season. Hard-frost median dates are March 9 and November 21; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would otherwise survive a 32 °F light frost, making the colder threshold more critical.

October 27 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, so a gardener can finish harvesting tender crops with confidence.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Mineral Wells, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Jacksboro, TX — 30 mi; 2 — near Fort Worth, TX — 41 mi; 3 — Burleson, TX — 46 mi; 4 — Cleburne, TX — 50 mi; 5 — Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX — 61 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Jacksboro, TX — 30 mi12. near Fort Worth, TX — 41 mi23. Burleson, TX — 46 mi34. Cleburne, TX — 50 mi45. Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX — 61 mi5
  1. Jacksboro, TX 30 mi (48 km)
  2. near Fort Worth, TX 41 mi (65 km)
  3. Burleson, TX 46 mi (74 km)
  4. Cleburne, TX 50 mi (80 km)
  5. Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX 61 mi (98 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.7817, -98.0603.