U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00205434 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Midland, MI

NOAA weather station Midland (USC00205434), Michigan · elevation 640 ft (195 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season167 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Midland, MISpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 167 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 16Frost season at Midland, MISpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 167 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 16October 1
50% (typical)April 29October 16
90% (likely)April 16November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
167 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 18
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 28 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 21 (5 days later). Frost-free season 176 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Midland: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 16, 20% May 10, 30% May 5, 40% May 2, 50% April 29, 60% April 27, 70% April 24, 80% April 20, 90% April 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2023 May 3, 2024 April 25, 2025 May 20, 2026 May 8.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 16Apr 29Apr 162023: May 32024: April 252025: May 202026: May 8Fall at Midland: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 5, 30% October 9, 40% October 13, 50% October 16, 60% October 20, 70% October 23, 80% October 27, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 26.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 16Nov 12021: October 222023: October 232024: October 172025: October 26
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordOctober 22
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023May 3October 23
2024April 25October 17
2025May 20October 26
2026May 8season not over yet

What these dates mean

The early spring gamble of setting out tender crops on April 16 carries a 90 % chance of a frost later in the season for Midland. The 50 % date of April 29 marks the point where the odds of a light frost are even, giving gardeners a statistical midpoint for planning.

A cautious planting schedule uses the May 16 date, which has only a 10 % chance of a later frost, while the cautious harvest finish uses October 1, with a 10 % chance of an earlier frost. The 50 % dates of April 29 and October 16 show when the probability of a 32 °F frost is balanced, and the hard-frost 50 % dates of April 18 and October 31 indicate when a 28 °F frost becomes equally likely. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Midland, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Saginaw, MI — 8 mi; 2 — Gladwin, MI — 29 mi; 3 — Standish, MI — 32 mi; 4 — Owosso, MI — 41 mi; 5 — West Branch, MI — 45 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. near Saginaw, MI — 8 mi12. Gladwin, MI — 29 mi23. Standish, MI — 32 mi34. Owosso, MI — 41 mi45. West Branch, MI — 45 mi5
  1. near Saginaw, MI 8 mi (13 km)
  2. Gladwin, MI 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Standish, MI 32 mi (51 km)
  4. Owosso, MI 41 mi (66 km)
  5. West Branch, MI 45 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 43.6089, -84.2011.