U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00315356 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Marshall, NC

NOAA weather station Marshall (USC00315356), North Carolina · elevation 1920 ft (585 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season173 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Marshall, NCSpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 28 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 28First frost ~Oct 18Frost season at Marshall, NCSpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 28 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 18 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 173 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 28First frost ~Oct 18
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 13October 6
50% (typical)April 28October 18
90% (likely)April 12November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
173 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 26

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 19 (1 day later). Frost-free season 176 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Marshall: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 13, 20% May 9, 30% May 4, 40% April 30, 50% April 28, 60% April 25, 70% April 22, 80% April 17, 90% April 12. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 April 21, 2023 May 5, 2024 April 24, 2025 April 18, 2026 May 16.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 13Apr 28Apr 122021: April 242022: April 212023: May 52024: April 242025: April 182026: May 16Fall at Marshall: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 10, 30% October 13, 40% October 15, 50% October 18, 60% October 20, 70% October 23, 80% October 27, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 18, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 9, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 18Nov 12021: October 182022: September 282023: October 92024: October 172025: October 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24October 18
2022April 21September 28
2023May 5October 9
2024April 24October 17
2025April 18October 21
2026May 16season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 12 in Marshall carries a 90 % chance of a frost later than that date, making it a gamble for spring planting. The cautious alternative is May 13, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains.

For a gardener, the 50 % date in spring is April 28; there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date. In fall, the 50 % date is October 18, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The cautious fall date is October 6, where the risk of an earlier frost is just 10 %. The median hard-frost dates, when temperatures reach 28 °F, are April 14 for spring and October 26 for fall, indicating when a more damaging freeze becomes equally likely.

A hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so it represents a higher risk to tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Marshall, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hot Springs, NC — 11 mi; 2 — Asheville, NC — 16 mi; 3 — Bent Creek, NC — 21 mi; 4 — Mount Mitchell, NC — 22 mi; 5 — Waterville, NC — 24 mi.TN25 mi · 40 km1. Hot Springs, NC — 11 mi12. Asheville, NC — 16 mi23. Bent Creek, NC — 21 mi34. Mount Mitchell, NC — 22 mi45. Waterville, NC — 24 mi5
  1. Hot Springs, NC 11 mi (18 km)
  2. Asheville, NC 16 mi (25 km)
  3. Bent Creek, NC 21 mi (34 km)
  4. Mount Mitchell, NC 22 mi (36 km)
  5. Waterville, NC 24 mi (39 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.8033, -82.6658.