U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00205065 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Manistee, MI

NOAA weather station Manistee 3 SE (USC00205065), Michigan · elevation 670 ft (204 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 31only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season151 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Manistee, MISpring: a frost after April 27 in 9 years out of 10, after May 14 in half of the years, after May 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 151 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 14First frost ~Oct 12Frost season at Manistee, MISpring: a frost after April 27 in 9 years out of 10, after May 14 in half of the years, after May 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 151 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 14First frost ~Oct 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 31September 27
50% (typical)May 14October 12
90% (likely)April 27November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
151 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 10 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 19 (7 days later). Frost-free season 160 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Manistee: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 31, 20% May 26, 30% May 22, 40% May 18, 50% May 14, 60% May 10, 70% May 5, 80% May 1, 90% April 27. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 April 28, 2023 May 15, 2024 April 25, 2025 May 9, 2026 May 14.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 31May 14Apr 272021: May 132022: April 282023: May 152024: April 252025: May 92026: May 14Fall at Manistee: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 27, 20% October 1, 30% October 5, 40% October 9, 50% October 12, 60% October 16, 70% October 21, 80% October 26, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 September 29, 2023 October 22, 2024 October 9, 2025 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 27Oct 12Nov 12021: October 272022: September 292023: October 222024: October 92025: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13October 27
2022April 28September 29
2023May 15October 22
2024April 25October 9
2025May 9October 9
2026May 14season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 31 is the cautious spring date for light frost in Manistee; with only a ten percent chance of a frost later, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops on that day. The 50% date is May 14, indicating an even odds of a frost, while the hard-frost 50% date is April 30, showing a fifty-fifty chance of a 28 °F event.

In the fall, September 27 is the cautious date for light frost, carrying a ten percent chance of a frost earlier, so harvesting tender crops can be scheduled up to that point. The 50% light-frost date is October 12 and the hard-frost 50% date is November 1, each marking the median point where frost is equally likely. A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can cause greater damage to plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 31" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Manistee, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Frankfort, MI — 30 mi; 2 — Cadillac, MI — 45 mi; 3 — near Traverse City, MI — 51 mi; 4 — Montague, MI — 52 mi; 5 — Big Rapids, MI — 53 mi.MIWI25 mi · 40 km1. Frankfort, MI — 30 mi12. Cadillac, MI — 45 mi23. near Traverse City, MI — 51 mi34. Montague, MI — 52 mi45. Big Rapids, MI — 53 mi5
  1. Frankfort, MI 30 mi (49 km)
  2. Cadillac, MI 45 mi (72 km)
  3. near Traverse City, MI 51 mi (82 km)
  4. Montague, MI 52 mi (84 km)
  5. Big Rapids, MI 53 mi (86 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.2114, -86.2939.