U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00148259 · Kansas

Frost Dates near Manhattan, KS

NOAA weather station Tuttle Creek Lake (USC00148259), Kansas · elevation 1058 ft (323 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

Manhattan is the nearest town to the station (4.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season179 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Manhattan, KSSpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 22 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 4 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 179 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 22First frost ~Oct 20Frost season near Manhattan, KSSpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 22 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 4 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 179 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 22First frost ~Oct 20
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 4
50% (typical)April 22October 20
90% (likely)April 8November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
179 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 19 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 20. Frost-free season 182 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Manhattan: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% April 30, 30% April 27, 40% April 24, 50% April 22, 60% April 19, 70% April 16, 80% April 13, 90% April 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 12, 2025 April 8, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 22Apr 82021: April 222022: April 262023: May 32024: April 122025: April 82026: April 19Fall near Manhattan: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 4, 20% October 10, 30% October 14, 40% October 17, 50% October 20, 60% October 22, 70% October 24, 80% October 27, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2023 October 17, 2024 October 16, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 4Oct 20Nov 12023: October 172024: October 162025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22incomplete record
2022April 26incomplete record
2023May 3October 17
2024April 12October 16
2025April 8October 30
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 5 is the cautious spring light-frost date for the Manhattan area; with only a 10 % chance of a frost later, it marks the point when tender crops can be set out with low risk.

The 50 % spring light-frost date is April 22, and the 50 % fall light-frost date is October 20; on each of these dates the probability of a frost is exactly even, so they serve as reference points for gauging risk. The median hard-frost dates are April 10 in spring and October 28 in fall, reminding gardeners that a temperature of 28 °F can cause more severe injury than a light frost at 32 °F.

In the fall, October 4 is the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops, carrying only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived. Together these dates help plan planting and harvest windows across the 28-year record.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 4" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Manhattan, KSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Clay Center, KS — 30 mi; 2 — Abilene, KS — 40 mi; 3 — near Council Grove, KS — 40 mi; 4 — Marysville, KS — 41 mi; 5 — Herington, KS — 44 mi.KSNE25 mi · 40 km1. Clay Center, KS — 30 mi12. Abilene, KS — 40 mi23. near Council Grove, KS — 40 mi34. Marysville, KS — 41 mi45. Herington, KS — 44 mi5
  1. Clay Center, KS 30 mi (48 km)
  2. Abilene, KS 40 mi (64 km)
  3. near Council Grove, KS 40 mi (64 km)
  4. Marysville, KS 41 mi (66 km)
  5. Herington, KS 44 mi (71 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.2475, -96.5994.