U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415477 · Texas

Frost Dates for Madisonville, TX

NOAA weather station Madisonville (USC00415477), Texas · elevation 252 ft (77 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season240 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Madisonville, TXSpring: a frost after February 23 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 240 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 11Frost season at Madisonville, TXSpring: a frost after February 23 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 240 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 7October 25
50% (typical)March 16November 11
90% (likely)February 23December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
240 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 14 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 9 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 239 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Madisonville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 7, 20% March 31, 30% March 26, 40% March 20, 50% March 16, 60% March 12, 70% March 6, 80% March 1, 90% February 23. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 20, 2023 February 19, 2025 February 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 7Mar 16Feb 232021: February 202023: February 192025: February 22Fall at Madisonville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 25, 20% October 31, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 11, 60% November 15, 70% November 18, 80% November 23, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 12, 2022 November 13, 2023 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 25Nov 11Dec 12021: December 122022: November 132023: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 20December 12
2022incomplete recordNovember 13
2023February 19November 2
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025February 22incomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

April 7 is the cautious spring date for light frost in Madisonville; with only a 10 % chance of frost later, it lets a gardener set out tender crops with minimal risk. The 50% date is March 16, meaning a frost is equally likely to occur later as earlier, and the 50% hard-frost date is March 2, marking the point where a hard frost is as likely as not. October 25 is the cautious fall date for light frost, carrying a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, and the 50% date is November 11, meaning a frost is equally likely to occur earlier as later. The 50% hard-frost date is November 20, indicating the same balance for hard frosts in autumn. A hard frost at 28 °F can cause greater damage to plant tissue than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Madisonville, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Centerville, TX — 22 mi; 2 — College Station, TX — 36 mi; 3 — Brenham, TX — 61 mi; 4 — Lufkin, TX — 72 mi; 5 — Lexington, TX — 75 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Centerville, TX — 22 mi12. College Station, TX — 36 mi23. Brenham, TX — 61 mi34. Lufkin, TX — 72 mi45. Lexington, TX — 75 mi5
  1. Centerville, TX 22 mi (36 km)
  2. College Station, TX 36 mi (58 km)
  3. Brenham, TX 61 mi (98 km)
  4. Lufkin, TX 72 mi (116 km)
  5. Lexington, TX 75 mi (120 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.9392, -95.9203.