U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00255040 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Lynch, NE

NOAA weather station Lynch (USC00255040), Nebraska · elevation 1411 ft (430 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season147 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lynch, NESpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 2 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 147 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 2Frost season at Lynch, NESpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 2 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 147 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 21September 19
50% (typical)May 8October 2
90% (likely)April 25October 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
147 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 7 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 4 (2 days later). Frost-free season 150 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lynch: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 21, 20% May 17, 30% May 13, 40% May 10, 50% May 8, 60% May 5, 70% May 3, 80% April 30, 90% April 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 May 23, 2024 May 5.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 21May 8Apr 252021: May 132022: May 232024: May 5Fall at Lynch: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 19, 20% September 23, 30% September 27, 40% September 30, 50% October 2, 60% October 4, 70% October 6, 80% October 10, 90% October 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 15, 2023 October 7.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 19Oct 2Oct 142021: October 152023: October 7
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13October 15
2022May 23incomplete record
2023incomplete recordOctober 7
2024May 5incomplete record
2025incomplete recordno data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Lynch is September 19, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 21, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later in the season; planting on April 25 is a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost. The median 32 °F dates are May 8 in spring and October 2 in fall, each representing an even 50 % chance of frost occurring either side of the date.

A hard frost at 28 °F, marked by the median dates April 28 and October 10, matters more than a light frost because it can damage plant tissue that would survive the milder 32 °F frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lynch, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Pickstown, SD — 17 mi; 2 — Butte, NE — 20 mi; 3 — O'Neill, NE — 27 mi; 4 — Tyndall, SD — 32 mi; 5 — Atkinson, NE — 36 mi.SD25 mi · 40 km1. Pickstown, SD — 17 mi12. Butte, NE — 20 mi23. O'Neill, NE — 27 mi34. Tyndall, SD — 32 mi45. Atkinson, NE — 36 mi5
  1. Pickstown, SD 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Butte, NE 20 mi (32 km)
  3. O'Neill, NE 27 mi (44 km)
  4. Tyndall, SD 32 mi (52 km)
  5. Atkinson, NE 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.83, -98.4711.