U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00214884 · Minnesota

Frost Dates for Lower St. Anthony Falls, MN

NOAA weather station Lower St. Anthony Falls (USC00214884), Minnesota · elevation 754 ft (230 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season175 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lower St. Anthony Falls, MNSpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 16Frost season at Lower St. Anthony Falls, MNSpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7October 2
50% (typical)April 23October 16
90% (likely)April 10October 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
175 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 27

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 22 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 21 (5 days later). Frost-free season 182 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lower St. Anthony Falls: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% May 2, 30% April 30, 40% April 26, 50% April 23, 60% April 21, 70% April 18, 80% April 15, 90% April 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 28, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 9, 2026 April 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 23Apr 102021: April 222022: April 282023: April 242024: April 212025: April 92026: April 20Fall at Lower St. Anthony Falls: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 2, 20% October 6, 30% October 10, 40% October 14, 50% October 16, 60% October 19, 70% October 22, 80% October 26, 90% October 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 24, 2022 October 15, 2023 October 27, 2024 October 14.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 2Oct 16Oct 302021: October 242022: October 152023: October 272024: October 14
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22October 24
2022April 28October 15
2023April 24October 27
2024April 21October 14
2025April 9incomplete record
2026April 20season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 7 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Lower St. Anthony Falls; after this day a gardener can set out tender crops with only a 10 % chance that a frost will occur later in the season. The median 32 °F date, April 23, marks the point at which the likelihood of a frost later versus earlier is even, while the 50 % hard-frost date, April 14, indicates when a 28 °F freeze becomes a 50 % possibility.

October 2 is the cautious fall light-frost date; after this date a gardener can finish harvesting tender crops with only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived. The median 32 °F date, October 16, is the 50 % point for a frost occurring earlier, and the 50 % hard-frost date, October 27, shows when a 28 °F freeze reaches equal odds. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lower St. Anthony Falls, MNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Roseville, MN — 3 mi; 2 — Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN — 7 mi; 3 — New Hope, MN — 7 mi; 4 — Chanhassen, MN — 18 mi; 5 — Rosemount, MN — 19 mi.WI25 mi · 40 km1. near Roseville, MN — 3 mi12. Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN — 7 mi23. New Hope, MN — 7 mi34. Chanhassen, MN — 18 mi45. Rosemount, MN — 19 mi5
  1. near Roseville, MN 3 mi (5 km)
  2. Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN 7 mi (11 km)
  3. New Hope, MN 7 mi (11 km)
  4. Chanhassen, MN 18 mi (29 km)
  5. Rosemount, MN 19 mi (31 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.9783, -93.2469.