U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00314938 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Lenoir, NC

NOAA weather station Lenoir (USC00314938), North Carolina · elevation 1155 ft (352 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 28only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season207 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lenoir, NCSpring: a frost after March 21 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 31Frost season at Lenoir, NCSpring: a frost after March 21 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 207 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 31
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 28October 18
50% (typical)April 7October 31
90% (likely)March 21November 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
207 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 6 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (1 day later). Frost-free season 208 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lenoir: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 28, 20% April 20, 30% April 15, 40% April 10, 50% April 7, 60% April 4, 70% April 1, 80% March 28, 90% March 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 10, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 25, 2025 April 14, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 28Apr 7Mar 212021: April 232022: April 102023: March 212024: March 252025: April 142026: March 29Fall at Lenoir: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 22, 30% October 26, 40% October 28, 50% October 31, 60% November 2, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 2, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 1.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 18Oct 31Nov 122021: November 52022: October 202023: November 22024: October 172025: November 1
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 5
2022April 10October 20
2023March 21November 2
2024March 25October 17
2025April 14November 1
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 18 marks the cautious fall date for Lenoir, indicating only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived and giving gardeners a marker to finish harvesting tender crops. The later light-frost date of November 12 carries a 90% chance of a frost earlier, so planting or harvesting beyond October 18 is a gamble. In spring the cautious date is April 28, when the chance of a light frost later drops to 10%; the earlier April 7 date is the 50% median, and March 21 bears a 90% chance of a frost later, making early sowing risky.

Gardners can use the 50% dates—April 7 for spring and October 31 for fall—to gauge the midpoint of frost odds, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost occurring on either side of those days. The hard-frost median dates are March 25 in spring and November 9 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that would survive a 32 °F light frost, so it represents a greater threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 28" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lenoir, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Hickory, NC — 15 mi; 2 — Boone, NC — 22 mi; 3 — West Kerr Scott Resv, NC — 23 mi; 4 — near Banner Elk, NC — 27 mi; 5 — North Wilkesboro, NC — 28 mi.TNVA25 mi · 40 km1. near Hickory, NC — 15 mi12. Boone, NC — 22 mi23. West Kerr Scott Resv, NC — 23 mi34. near Banner Elk, NC — 27 mi45. North Wilkesboro, NC — 28 mi5
  1. near Hickory, NC 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Boone, NC 22 mi (35 km)
  3. West Kerr Scott Resv, NC 23 mi (37 km)
  4. near Banner Elk, NC 27 mi (43 km)
  5. North Wilkesboro, NC 28 mi (44 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.9147, -81.5375.