U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00034106 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Lead Hill, AR

NOAA weather station Lead Hill (USC00034106), Arkansas · elevation 830 ft (253 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season189 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lead Hill, ARSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 22Frost season at Lead Hill, ARSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 7
50% (typical)April 15October 22
90% (likely)March 30November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
189 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25 (3 days later). Frost-free season 194 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lead Hill: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 26, 30% April 23, 40% April 19, 50% April 15, 60% April 13, 70% April 9, 80% April 5, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 19, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 16, 2026 March 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 15Mar 302021: April 222022: April 192023: April 242024: April 222025: April 162026: March 28Fall at Lead Hill: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 7, 20% October 13, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 22, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 31, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 7Oct 22Nov 42021: November 52022: October 182023: October 302024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 19October 18
2023April 24October 30
2024April 22October 16
2025April 16November 2
2026March 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 7 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Lead Hill, carrying only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. The 50% date, October 22, indicates an even odds of a light frost occurring earlier, while November 4 carries a 90% chance that a light frost has already begun, making late tender crops a gamble. A hard frost reaches the 50% point on November 1, and because 28°F can injure plants that survive 32°F, hard frosts are a greater threat.

Spring planning uses the cautious date of May 1, where there is a 10% chance of a light frost later, providing the most conservative timing for setting out tender crops. The 50% date, April 15, shows a 50% chance of a light frost later, and March 30 carries a 90% chance that a light frost will still occur, making earlier planting risky. The hard-frost 50% date is April 4, underscoring that the colder 28°F threshold can damage plants even when a light frost has not yet appeared.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lead Hill, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Harrison, AR — 17 mi; 2 — Ozark Beach, MO — 21 mi; 3 — Gilbert, AR — 32 mi; 4 — Calico Rock, AR — 47 mi; 5 — Mansfield, MO — 51 mi.MO25 mi · 40 km1. Harrison, AR — 17 mi12. Ozark Beach, MO — 21 mi23. Gilbert, AR — 32 mi34. Calico Rock, AR — 47 mi45. Mansfield, MO — 51 mi5
  1. Harrison, AR 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Ozark Beach, MO 21 mi (33 km)
  3. Gilbert, AR 32 mi (51 km)
  4. Calico Rock, AR 47 mi (76 km)
  5. Mansfield, MO 51 mi (82 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.4194, -92.9158.