U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014836 · Michigan

Frost Dates near Lansing, MI

NOAA weather station Lansing Capital City Airport (USW00014836), Michigan · elevation 841 ft (256 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

Lansing is the nearest town to the station (3.5 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season162 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Lansing, MISpring: a frost after April 18 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 13Frost season near Lansing, MISpring: a frost after April 18 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 13
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 18September 29
50% (typical)May 1October 13
90% (likely)April 18October 28
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
162 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 27

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 30 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 19 (6 days later). Frost-free season 169 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Lansing: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 18, 20% May 11, 30% May 7, 40% May 3, 50% May 1, 60% April 29, 70% April 26, 80% April 23, 90% April 18. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 April 28, 2023 April 27, 2024 April 25, 2025 May 9, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 18May 1Apr 182021: May 122022: April 282023: April 272024: April 252025: May 92026: May 2Fall near Lansing: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 3, 30% October 6, 40% October 9, 50% October 13, 60% October 16, 70% October 19, 80% October 22, 90% October 28. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 24, 2022 October 27, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 27, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 13Oct 282021: October 242022: October 272023: October 232024: October 272025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 24
2022April 28October 27
2023April 27October 23
2024April 25October 27
2025May 9October 25
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on April 18 in the Lansing area is a gamble, because there is a 90 % chance of a light frost later than that date. A more cautious approach waits until May 18, when only a 10 % chance of a light frost remains.

The 50 % dates mark the point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). In this record the median spring date is May 1 and the median fall date is October 13; they are not frost dates themselves. For hard frost, the median dates are April 21 in spring and October 27 in fall, and a hard frost can be more damaging than a 32 °F light frost. The cautious dates for tender crops are May 18 for planting and September 29 for finishing harvest, each carrying only a 10 % chance of a light frost occurring before or after them.

The 28 °F hard-frost threshold matters more because it can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lansing, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Charlotte, MI — 20 mi; 2 — Owosso, MI — 26 mi; 3 — near Jackson, MI — 36 mi; 4 — Hastings, MI — 37 mi; 5 — Grand Rapids, MI — 50 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Charlotte, MI — 20 mi12. Owosso, MI — 26 mi23. near Jackson, MI — 36 mi34. Hastings, MI — 37 mi45. Grand Rapids, MI — 50 mi5
  1. Charlotte, MI 20 mi (33 km)
  2. Owosso, MI 26 mi (42 km)
  3. near Jackson, MI 36 mi (58 km)
  4. Hastings, MI 37 mi (60 km)
  5. Grand Rapids, MI 50 mi (80 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.7803, -84.5789.