U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00144464 · Kansas

Frost Dates for Lakin, KS

NOAA weather station Lakin (USC00144464), Kansas · elevation 2998 ft (914 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season187 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lakin, KSSpring: a frost after April 4 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 23Frost season at Lakin, KSSpring: a frost after April 4 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 8
50% (typical)April 18October 23
90% (likely)April 4November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
187 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 7
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 19 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25 (2 days later). Frost-free season 188 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lakin: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 28, 30% April 24, 40% April 21, 50% April 18, 60% April 15, 70% April 12, 80% April 8, 90% April 4. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 17, 2023 April 16, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 10, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 18Apr 42021: April 232022: April 172023: April 162024: March 292025: April 102026: April 19Fall at Lakin: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 8, 20% October 14, 30% October 18, 40% October 21, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 30, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 16, 2022 October 31, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 8Oct 23Nov 32021: October 162022: October 312023: October 282024: October 172025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23October 16
2022April 17October 31
2023April 16October 28
2024March 29October 17
2025April 10October 30
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

Gardeners who set out tender crops on April 4 in Lakin face a 90 % chance of a light frost later, so it is a gamble. The cautious spring date is May 1, when only a 10 % chance of a frost later remains, and the cautious fall date is October 8, with just a 10 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The 50 % date is April 18, indicating an even chance of a light frost later than this date, and the 50 % date is October 23, indicating an even chance of a light frost earlier than this date. The 50 % hard-frost dates are April 7 and October 31. A hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F, making the hard-frost threshold more consequential.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 8" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lakin, KSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Ulysses, KS — 24 mi; 2 — near Garden City, KS — 24 mi; 3 — Garden City (Airport), KS — 29 mi; 4 — Scott City, KS — 41 mi; 5 — Tribune, KS — 46 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. Ulysses, KS — 24 mi12. near Garden City, KS — 24 mi23. Garden City (Airport), KS — 29 mi34. Scott City, KS — 41 mi45. Tribune, KS — 46 mi5
  1. Ulysses, KS 24 mi (38 km)
  2. near Garden City, KS 24 mi (39 km)
  3. Garden City (Airport), KS 29 mi (46 km)
  4. Scott City, KS 41 mi (66 km)
  5. Tribune, KS 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.9411, -101.2492.