U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00124782 · Indiana

Frost Dates for Lakeville, IN

NOAA weather station Lakeville (USC00124782), Indiana · elevation 841 ft (256 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season163 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lakeville, INSpring: a frost after April 18 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 13Frost season at Lakeville, INSpring: a frost after April 18 in 9 years out of 10, after May 1 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 1First frost ~Oct 13
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 18September 30
50% (typical)May 1October 13
90% (likely)April 18October 28
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
163 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 26

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 1 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 18 (5 days later). Frost-free season 170 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lakeville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 18, 20% May 11, 30% May 7, 40% May 4, 50% May 1, 60% April 29, 70% April 26, 80% April 22, 90% April 18. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 10, 2022 May 7, 2023 April 28, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 18May 1Apr 182021: May 102022: May 72023: April 282024: April 262025: April 172026: May 3Fall at Lakeville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 30, 20% October 4, 30% October 7, 40% October 10, 50% October 13, 60% October 17, 70% October 20, 80% October 24, 90% October 28. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 24, 2022 October 15, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 30Oct 13Oct 282021: October 242022: October 152023: October 312024: October 172025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 10October 24
2022May 7October 15
2023April 28October 31
2024April 26October 17
2025April 17October 24
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 30 is the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Lakeville; there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has already arrived by that day.

The 50 % dates for a 32 °F light frost, May 1 in spring and October 13 in fall, each represent an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall) and together define the frost-free season, which spans 163 days between them. The median hard-frost dates are April 21 and October 26; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would otherwise survive a 32 °F light frost.

For a cautious planting plan, May 18 is the spring date with only a 10 % chance of a frost later, while September 30 serves the same purpose in fall. Planting on April 18 or harvesting on October 28 carries a 90 % risk of frost and is a gamble.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 30" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lakeville, INNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near South Bend, IN — 13 mi; 2 — Plymouth, IN — 13 mi; 3 — Goshen, IN — 20 mi; 4 — Laporte, IN — 25 mi; 5 — Rochester, IN — 32 mi.MIILOH25 mi · 40 km1. near South Bend, IN — 13 mi12. Plymouth, IN — 13 mi23. Goshen, IN — 20 mi34. Laporte, IN — 25 mi45. Rochester, IN — 32 mi5
  1. near South Bend, IN 13 mi (20 km)
  2. Plymouth, IN 13 mi (22 km)
  3. Goshen, IN 20 mi (32 km)
  4. Laporte, IN 25 mi (39 km)
  5. Rochester, IN 32 mi (51 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.5269, -86.2692.