U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00204502 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Lake City, MI

NOAA weather station Lake City Experiment Farm (USC00204502), Michigan · elevation 1230 ft (375 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season125 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lake City, MISpring: a frost after May 8 in 9 years out of 10, after May 22 in half of the years, after June 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 11 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 125 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 22First frost ~Sep 26Frost season at Lake City, MISpring: a frost after May 8 in 9 years out of 10, after May 22 in half of the years, after June 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 11 in 1 year out of 10, before September 26 in half of the years, before October 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 125 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 22First frost ~Sep 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 6September 11
50% (typical)May 22September 26
90% (likely)May 8October 9
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
125 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 22 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost September 30 (4 days later). Frost-free season 127 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lake City: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 6, 20% June 1, 30% May 28, 40% May 25, 50% May 22, 60% May 20, 70% May 16, 80% May 12, 90% May 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 June 22, 2022 May 23, 2023 May 27, 2024 April 27, 2025 May 11, 2026 May 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 6May 22May 82021: June 222022: May 232023: May 272024: April 272025: May 112026: May 21Fall at Lake City: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 11, 20% September 16, 30% September 20, 40% September 23, 50% September 26, 60% September 29, 70% October 1, 80% October 5, 90% October 9. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 18, 2022 September 23, 2023 October 12, 2024 October 3, 2025 September 8.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 11Sep 26Oct 92021: October 182022: September 232023: October 122024: October 32025: September 8
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021June 22October 18
2022May 23September 23
2023May 27October 12
2024April 27October 3
2025May 11September 8
2026May 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 11 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Lake City, Michigan, when only a 10 % chance exists that a light frost has arrived earlier.

The 50% date is May 22, marking a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, while the 50% date is September 26, marking a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. For a cautious spring planting, June 6 is the date with a 10 % chance of a frost later, whereas setting out tender crops on May 8 carries a 90 % chance of a frost later and is a gamble. In the fall, October 9 carries a 90 % chance of a frost earlier and is likewise risky.

The hard-frost 50% dates are May 10 and October 8; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, making the lower temperature more critical for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lake City, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cadillac, MI — 10 mi; 2 — near Houghton Lake, MI — 26 mi; 3 — Kalkaska, MI — 29 mi; 4 — Grayling, MI — 35 mi; 5 — near Traverse City, MI — 35 mi.MI25 mi · 40 km1. Cadillac, MI — 10 mi12. near Houghton Lake, MI — 26 mi23. Kalkaska, MI — 29 mi34. Grayling, MI — 35 mi45. near Traverse City, MI — 35 mi5
  1. Cadillac, MI 10 mi (16 km)
  2. near Houghton Lake, MI 26 mi (43 km)
  3. Kalkaska, MI 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Grayling, MI 35 mi (56 km)
  5. near Traverse City, MI 35 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.3089, -85.205.