U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414782 · Texas

Frost Dates for Kerrville, TX

NOAA weather station Kerrville 3 NNE (USC00414782), Texas · elevation 1797 ft (548 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season226 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Kerrville, TXSpring: a frost after March 4 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 7Frost season at Kerrville, TXSpring: a frost after March 4 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 16October 23
50% (typical)March 27November 7
90% (likely)March 4November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
226 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 18

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 24 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 6 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 231 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Kerrville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 16, 20% April 9, 30% April 4, 40% April 1, 50% March 27, 60% March 22, 70% March 17, 80% March 11, 90% March 4. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 3, 2022 March 25, 2023 February 19, 2024 March 10, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 16Mar 27Mar 42021: March 32022: March 252023: February 192024: March 102025: April 72026: March 17Fall at Kerrville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 29, 30% November 1, 40% November 5, 50% November 7, 60% November 10, 70% November 14, 80% November 19, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 23, 2022 November 12, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 7Nov 262021: November 232022: November 122023: November 12024: November 212025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 3November 23
2022March 25November 12
2023February 19November 1
2024March 10November 21
2025April 7October 30
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 226 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Kerrville outline the period during which light frosts are less likely than not. The 50% date is March 27 for spring and November 7 for fall, each representing an even chance that a light frost will occur later (spring) or earlier (fall).

For a cautious spring plan, the April 16 date carries a 10% chance of a light frost occurring later, making it the recommended point to set out tender crops. In the fall, the October 23 date holds a 10% chance of a light frost having arrived earlier, so it serves as the cautious deadline for finishing harvest of tender crops.

The hard-frost median dates are March 11 in spring and November 18 in fall; a hard frost at 28°F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32°F, so those dates signal when the risk of serious injury rises sharply.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Kerrville, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Fredericksburg, TX — 17 mi; 2 — Boerne, TX — 29 mi; 3 — Blanco, TX — 42 mi; 4 — Junction, TX — 49 mi; 5 — near Canyon Lake, TX — 57 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Fredericksburg, TX — 17 mi12. Boerne, TX — 29 mi23. Blanco, TX — 42 mi34. Junction, TX — 49 mi45. near Canyon Lake, TX — 57 mi5
  1. Fredericksburg, TX 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Boerne, TX 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Blanco, TX 42 mi (67 km)
  4. Junction, TX 49 mi (79 km)
  5. near Canyon Lake, TX 57 mi (91 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.0739, -99.1094.