U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00214176 · Minnesota

Frost Dates for Jordan, MN

NOAA weather station Jordan 1 SSW (USC00214176), Minnesota · elevation 900 ft (274 m) · hardiness zone 4b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season153 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Jordan, MNSpring: a frost after April 17 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 21 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 153 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 5Frost season at Jordan, MNSpring: a frost after April 17 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 21 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 153 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 18September 21
50% (typical)May 2October 5
90% (likely)April 17October 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
153 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 22
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 30 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 10 (5 days later). Frost-free season 164 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Jordan: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 18, 20% May 12, 30% May 9, 40% May 5, 50% May 2, 60% April 30, 70% April 27, 80% April 22, 90% April 17. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 April 28, 2023 April 27, 2024 April 25, 2025 April 20, 2026 May 11.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 18May 2Apr 172021: May 122022: April 282023: April 272024: April 252025: April 202026: May 11Fall at Jordan: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 21, 20% September 26, 30% September 29, 40% October 2, 50% October 5, 60% October 8, 70% October 11, 80% October 15, 90% October 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 11, 2024 October 15, 2025 October 8.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 21Oct 5Oct 192021: October 222022: September 282023: October 112024: October 152025: October 8
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 22
2022April 28September 28
2023April 27October 11
2024April 25October 15
2025April 20October 8
2026May 11season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 17 in Jordan carries a 90 % chance of a light frost later that season, so planting then is a gamble. The cautious spring date for tender crops is May 18, when only a 10 % chance of a later light frost remains.

For gardeners, the 50 % date of May 2 indicates an even chance of a light frost later than this date, while the 50 % date of October 5 signals an even chance of a light frost earlier than this date. The 50 % hard-frost dates are April 22 in spring and October 16 in fall, marking the median likelihood of temperatures dropping to 28 °F. A cautious fall plan uses September 21, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

Because a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, it is the critical threshold for winter survival.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Jordan, MNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Chanhassen, MN — 14 mi; 2 — Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN — 26 mi; 3 — Rosemount, MN — 27 mi; 4 — New Hope, MN — 28 mi; 5 — St. Peter, MN — 28 mi.WI25 mi · 40 km1. Chanhassen, MN — 14 mi12. Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN — 26 mi23. Rosemount, MN — 27 mi34. New Hope, MN — 28 mi45. St. Peter, MN — 28 mi5
  1. Chanhassen, MN 14 mi (23 km)
  2. Minneapolis (Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport), MN 26 mi (41 km)
  3. Rosemount, MN 27 mi (43 km)
  4. New Hope, MN 28 mi (45 km)
  5. St. Peter, MN 28 mi (45 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.65, -93.6356.