U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00304207 · New York

Frost Dates for Jamestown, NY

NOAA weather station Jamestown 4 ENE (USC00304207), New York · elevation 1250 ft (381 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season158 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Jamestown, NYSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 158 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 13Frost season at Jamestown, NYSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 13 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 158 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 13
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 25October 1
50% (typical)May 8October 13
90% (likely)April 22October 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
158 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 5 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 19 (6 days later). Frost-free season 164 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Jamestown: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 25, 20% May 20, 30% May 15, 40% May 11, 50% May 8, 60% May 4, 70% April 30, 80% April 28, 90% April 22. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 May 1, 2023 May 19, 2024 April 27, 2025 April 18, 2026 May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 25May 8Apr 222021: May 132022: May 12023: May 192024: April 272025: April 182026: May 13Fall at Jamestown: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 4, 30% October 7, 40% October 10, 50% October 13, 60% October 17, 70% October 20, 80% October 24, 90% October 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 16, 2023 October 24, 2024 October 11, 2025 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 13Oct 302021: November 52022: October 162023: October 242024: October 112025: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13November 5
2022May 1October 16
2023May 19October 24
2024April 27October 11
2025April 18October 9
2026May 13season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 1 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Jamestown; only a ten-percent chance exists that a light frost has arrived earlier.

The 50% hard-frost dates are April 25 in spring and October 28 in fall, each representing a fifty-percent chance of a hard frost later than the spring date and earlier than the fall date. For a low-risk plan, gardeners should wait until May 25 to set out tender crops, the cautious spring light-frost date with only a ten-percent chance of frost after that day, and they should aim to complete harvest by October 1, the cautious fall light-frost date with only a ten-percent chance of frost before it.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because it can kill plant tissue that would otherwise survive a milder freeze.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Jamestown, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Warren, PA — 18 mi; 2 — Little Valley, NY — 20 mi; 3 — near Allegany, NY — 21 mi; 4 — Bradford 4 SW Research 5, PA — 27 mi; 5 — Bradford, PA — 34 mi.PANY25 mi · 40 km1. Warren, PA — 18 mi12. Little Valley, NY — 20 mi23. near Allegany, NY — 21 mi34. Bradford 4 SW Research 5, PA — 27 mi45. Bradford, PA — 34 mi5
  1. Warren, PA 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Little Valley, NY 20 mi (32 km)
  3. near Allegany, NY 21 mi (34 km)
  4. Bradford 4 SW Research 5, PA 27 mi (44 km)
  5. Bradford, PA 34 mi (55 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.11, -79.1592.