U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00233838 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Higginsville, MO

NOAA weather station Higginsville (USC00233838), Missouri · elevation 836 ft (255 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season195 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Higginsville, MOSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 24Frost season at Higginsville, MOSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 25October 10
50% (typical)April 10October 24
90% (likely)March 26November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
195 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24. Frost-free season 198 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Higginsville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 25, 20% April 20, 30% April 16, 40% April 13, 50% April 10, 60% April 7, 70% April 4, 80% March 31, 90% March 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 19, 2023 April 23, 2024 March 28, 2025 April 8, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 25Apr 10Mar 262021: April 222022: April 192023: April 232024: March 282025: April 82026: March 29Fall at Higginsville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 10, 20% October 17, 30% October 19, 40% October 22, 50% October 24, 60% October 27, 70% October 29, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 10Oct 24Nov 52021: November 22022: October 82023: October 282024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 2
2022April 19October 8
2023April 23October 28
2024March 28October 16
2025April 8November 2
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

In Higginsville the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest is October 10, when there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

The 50% date in spring is April 10 and the 50% date in fall is October 24; each marks an even-odds point for a light frost, with a 50% chance of a frost later than April 10 and a 50% chance of a frost earlier than October 24. For tender crops a cautious spring plan uses the late date April 25, which carries a 10% chance of frost later, while a cautious fall plan uses the early date October 10, which carries a 10% chance of frost earlier.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, and the median hard-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 2 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Higginsville, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Elm, MO — 23 mi; 2 — Carrollton, MO — 23 mi; 3 — Pleasant Hill, MO — 35 mi; 4 — Independence, MO — 36 mi; 5 — Sedalia, MO — 38 mi.KS25 mi · 40 km1. Elm, MO — 23 mi12. Carrollton, MO — 23 mi23. Pleasant Hill, MO — 35 mi34. Independence, MO — 36 mi45. Sedalia, MO — 38 mi5
  1. Elm, MO 23 mi (36 km)
  2. Carrollton, MO 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Pleasant Hill, MO 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Independence, MO 36 mi (59 km)
  5. Sedalia, MO 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.0733, -93.7075.