U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00362942 · Pennsylvania

Frost Dates near Ford City, PA

NOAA weather station Ford City 4 S Dam (USC00362942), Pennsylvania · elevation 930 ft (284 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

Ford City is the nearest town to the station (4.0 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 20only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season164 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Ford City, PASpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 164 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 16Frost season near Ford City, PASpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 20 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 164 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 20October 2
50% (typical)May 4October 16
90% (likely)April 20October 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
164 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 3 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 21 (5 days later). Frost-free season 169 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Ford City: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 20, 20% May 15, 30% May 10, 40% May 6, 50% May 4, 60% April 30, 70% April 28, 80% April 24, 90% April 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 14, 2022 May 1, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 27.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 20May 4Apr 202021: May 142022: May 12023: May 182024: April 27Fall near Ford City: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 2, 20% October 7, 30% October 10, 40% October 13, 50% October 16, 60% October 19, 70% October 22, 80% October 25, 90% October 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 18, 2025 October 17.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 2Oct 16Oct 302021: November 32022: October 92023: October 232024: October 182025: October 17
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 14November 3
2022May 1October 9
2023May 18October 23
2024April 27October 18
2025incomplete recordOctober 17
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

May 20 is the cautious spring date for the Ford City area, carrying only a 10 % chance of a light frost later and allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The median light-frost date of May 4 marks the point where there is a 50 % chance of a frost later, while the 50 % hard-frost date of April 23 indicates an even odds of a 28 °F frost later in the season.

October 2 is the cautious fall date, with just a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, and it signals when tender crops should be finished for harvest. The median light-frost date of October 16 represents a 50 % chance of a frost earlier, and the 50 % hard-frost date of October 28 shows an even odds of a 28 °F frost earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 20" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ford City, PANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Salina, PA — 14 mi; 2 — Indiana, PA — 22 mi; 3 — Butler, PA — 23 mi; 4 — McKeesport, PA — 32 mi; 5 — Slippery Rock, PA — 37 mi.OHWV25 mi · 40 km1. Salina, PA — 14 mi12. Indiana, PA — 22 mi23. Butler, PA — 23 mi34. McKeesport, PA — 32 mi45. Slippery Rock, PA — 37 mi5
  1. Salina, PA 14 mi (23 km)
  2. Indiana, PA 22 mi (36 km)
  3. Butler, PA 23 mi (37 km)
  4. McKeesport, PA 32 mi (51 km)
  5. Slippery Rock, PA 37 mi (60 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.715, -79.5133.