U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00252820 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Fairbury, NE

NOAA weather station Fairbury 5 S (USC00252820), Nebraska · elevation 1350 ft (412 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season169 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Fairbury, NESpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 25 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 169 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 25First frost ~Oct 15Frost season at Fairbury, NESpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 25 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 169 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 25First frost ~Oct 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7September 30
50% (typical)April 25October 15
90% (likely)April 9October 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
169 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 24

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 15. Frost-free season 171 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Fairbury: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% May 3, 30% April 30, 40% April 28, 50% April 25, 60% April 21, 70% April 18, 80% April 15, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 2, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 15, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 25Apr 92021: April 222022: April 262023: May 22024: April 212025: April 152026: April 19Fall at Fairbury: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 30, 20% October 5, 30% October 9, 40% October 13, 50% October 15, 60% October 17, 70% October 20, 80% October 22, 90% October 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 21, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 30Oct 15Oct 262021: October 212022: October 82023: October 282024: October 142025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22October 21
2022April 26October 8
2023May 2October 28
2024April 21October 14
2025April 15October 30
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 7 is the cautious spring date for Fairbury; with only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops. The early spring gamble date of April 9 carries a 90 % chance of frost, while the median April 25 is simply the 50 % point and not a frost date.

In the fall the cautious date is September 30, when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has arrived, marking the time to finish harvesting tender crops. The median October 15 is the 50 % date and the late-season gamble is October 26 with a 90 % chance of frost. The 50 % dates mean that on April 25 and October 15 there is an even chance a light frost will occur later in spring or earlier in fall, respectively. The hard-frost median dates are April 14 and October 24; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 30" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Fairbury, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Washington, KS — 19 mi; 2 — Hebron, NE — 23 mi; 3 — Belleville, KS — 31 mi; 4 — Marysville, KS — 32 mi; 5 — Geneva, NE — 39 mi.NEIA25 mi · 40 km1. Washington, KS — 19 mi12. Hebron, NE — 23 mi23. Belleville, KS — 31 mi34. Marysville, KS — 32 mi45. Geneva, NE — 39 mi5
  1. Washington, KS 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Hebron, NE 23 mi (38 km)
  3. Belleville, KS 31 mi (49 km)
  4. Marysville, KS 32 mi (52 km)
  5. Geneva, NE 39 mi (63 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.0739, -97.1669.