U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00352693 · Oregon

Frost Dates for Estacada, OR

NOAA weather station Estacada 2 SE (USC00352693), Oregon · elevation 514 ft (157 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season230 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Estacada, ORSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 14 in half of the years, before December 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 14Frost season at Estacada, ORSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 14 in half of the years, before December 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 14
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 23
50% (typical)March 27November 14
90% (likely)March 2December 7
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
230 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 22
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 1 (5 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 13 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 223 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Estacada: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 14, 30% April 5, 40% April 1, 50% March 27, 60% March 23, 70% March 17, 80% March 11, 90% March 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 12, 2022 April 7, 2023 April 6, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 14, 2026 February 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 23Mar 27Mar 22021: April 122022: April 72023: April 62024: April 222025: April 142026: February 28Fall at Estacada: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 30, 30% November 4, 40% November 9, 50% November 14, 60% November 18, 70% November 24, 80% November 29, 90% December 7. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 17, 2022 November 9, 2023 October 27, 2024 November 20, 2025 November 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 14Dec 72021: November 172022: November 92023: October 272024: November 202025: November 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 12November 17
2022April 7November 9
2023April 6October 27
2024April 22November 20
2025April 14November 19
2026February 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 2 in Estacada carries a 90% chance of a light frost later that spring, making it a gamble. The cautious spring date is April 23, when only a 10% chance of a light frost remains. The 50% date, March 27, marks the point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur before or after.

In the autumn, the cautious day to finish harvesting tender crops is October 23, with a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived. The median point is November 14, where the odds of a light frost occurring earlier or later are balanced. Waiting until December 7 would be a gamble, as a light frost is 90% likely before then.

Hard-frost median dates are February 22 in spring and December 3 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Estacada, ORNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Sandy, OR — 15 mi; 2 — Three Lynx, OR — 16 mi; 3 — Portland, OR — 26 mi; 4 — Government Camp, OR — 28 mi; 5 — Silverton, OR — 29 mi.WA25 mi · 40 km1. near Sandy, OR — 15 mi12. Three Lynx, OR — 16 mi23. Portland, OR — 26 mi34. Government Camp, OR — 28 mi45. Silverton, OR — 29 mi5
  1. near Sandy, OR 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Three Lynx, OR 16 mi (25 km)
  3. Portland, OR 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Government Camp, OR 28 mi (45 km)
  5. Silverton, OR 29 mi (46 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 45.2694, -122.3167.