U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014860 · Pennsylvania

Frost Dates for Erie, PA

NOAA weather station Erie International Airport (USW00014860), Pennsylvania · elevation 730 ft (223 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season192 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Erie, PASpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Nov 4Frost season at Erie, PASpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Nov 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 13October 21
50% (typical)April 26November 4
90% (likely)April 10November 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
192 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 4. Frost-free season 193 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Erie: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 13, 20% May 6, 30% May 2, 40% April 29, 50% April 26, 60% April 23, 70% April 20, 80% April 16, 90% April 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 26, 2022 April 29, 2023 April 27, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 13Apr 26Apr 102021: April 262022: April 292023: April 272024: April 262025: April 172026: April 21Fall at Erie: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 21, 20% October 27, 30% October 30, 40% November 1, 50% November 4, 60% November 7, 70% November 9, 80% November 12, 90% November 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 20, 2022 October 28, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 13, 2025 October 27.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 21Nov 4Nov 172021: November 202022: October 282023: October 312024: November 132025: October 27
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 26November 20
2022April 29October 28
2023April 27October 31
2024April 26November 13
2025April 17October 27
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 13 is the cautious spring date, giving a gardener in Erie confidence to set out tender crops because only a 10 % chance of a frost remains after that day. In the fall, October 21 serves as the cautious date for finishing the harvest of tender crops, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived.

The 50% light-frost dates are April 26 in spring and November 4 in fall; at each of those days the historical record shows an even chance of a frost occurring, so a gardener should expect roughly equal risk either side of the date. The median hard-frost dates are April 11 and November 16, marking the point at which a 28 °F frost is just as likely as not.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, making it a more critical threshold for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Erie, PANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Linesville, PA — 32 mi; 2 — Dorset, OH — 37 mi; 3 — Titusville, PA — 40 mi; 4 — Jamestown, PA — 43 mi; 5 — Franklin, PA — 50 mi.OHNY25 mi · 40 km1. Linesville, PA — 32 mi12. Dorset, OH — 37 mi23. Titusville, PA — 40 mi34. Jamestown, PA — 43 mi45. Franklin, PA — 50 mi5
  1. Linesville, PA 32 mi (52 km)
  2. Dorset, OH 37 mi (60 km)
  3. Titusville, PA 40 mi (64 km)
  4. Jamestown, PA 43 mi (69 km)
  5. Franklin, PA 50 mi (81 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.08, -80.1825.